MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0290
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
600 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST IL...FAR SOUTHERN IN...KY...CENTRAL
AND EASTERN TN...FAR SOUTHWEST NC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 020957Z - 021500Z
 
SUMMARY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. SLOW MOVEMENT
COUPLED WITH POCKETS OF TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING CONVECTION WILL
FAVOR SOME FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A RATHER
LARGE AXIS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN KY AND DOWN INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN TN. CONVECTION
IN A MORE SCATTERED NATURE IS SEEN OVER SOUTHERN IL AND AND
SOUTHERN IN. ALL OF THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE LOWER OH VALLEY WHICH IS INTERACTING WITH A
FRONTAL ZONE. A POOL OF DEEP MOISTURE IS FOCUSED ALONG THE
FRONT...AS GOES-SOUNDER PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEYS THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0 INCHES.
MEANWHILE...VAD WIND PROFILER DATA INDICATES A WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 45 KTS NOSING INTO SOUTHERN
KY AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TN...WHICH IS HELPING TO
TRANSPORT AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EAST OUT OF THE LOWER TO
MID MS VALLEY REGION.

THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOCUSING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE
BROADER WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. THIS COUPLED WITH AT LEAST
MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL JET AIDED
THERMODYNAMICS...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE 08Z HRRR STRONGLY SUGGESTS A SET-UP THAT FAVORS TRAINING AND
LOCALLY BACKBUILDING CONVECTION. RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2
INCHES/HR AS EXPECTED...AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
LATE MORNING OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN EARLIER
RAINS AND THE INTENSE SHORT-TERM RAINFALL RATES...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...GSP...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...
PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   38688747 38548584 38098431 37578367 36938327 
            36078298 35478315 35058375 34998449 35148513 
            35718622 36048703 36398803 37148868 38008882 
            38468844