Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0310
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
715 PM EDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Areas affected...Southern & Eastern NM...Southeast AZ... Western
TX Panhandle...NW Northern TX Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032315Z - 040500Z

SUMMARY...Potential for widely scattered, highly localized
incidents of flash flooding continue through early overnight
period.  Localized 1-1.5" sub-hourly to hourly rates.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts the core of the main
upper-low is lifting out of the Southwest into Eastern Colorado
with a great anti-cyclonically curved outflow jet aiding some
convection within northeast NM.  In the wake, a broad baggy trough
still remains with a subtle shortwave features in proximity to El
Paso, Texas.  As a result, moisture continues to remain/weakly
stream through the Middle Rio Grande Valley and across SW NM into
far southeast AZ.  Enhanced low to mid-level moisture is about
1-1.2" across the area but given the modest lapse rates aloft,
still continue to provide ample conditionally unstable environment
for ongoing convection to seek out and help maintain subsequent
updrafts developing on the outflow/cold pools.  Given the terrain,
a corral of convection across the portions of the Gila, Mogollan,
and Black Ranges are likely to intersect and merge with cells
lifting north out of SE AZ and northern Chihuahua.   Tds in the
upper 40s, low 50s and total Pwats given remaining 1500-2000 J/kg
of CAPE, should provide vigor to support lower cloud moisture
loading to support quick burst rates of 1"; with any
intersections/mergers of updrafts potentially nearing 1.5" in 30
to 60 minutes.  The widely scattered to isolated nature falling
over hard, limited soil types should result in localized high run
off and an isolated incident of flash flooding or two.

Further northeast...a secondary channel of enhanced low level
moisture flux across the Pecos River Valley/Permian Basin into the
High Plains of NM will increase to 20kts and bring total Pwats
back toward 1-1.25".  However, greater heating and steeper lapse
rates, have supported slightly more unstable environment over E NM
with CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg available.  Initial convection off the
southern Rockies is already starting to emerge along with outflow
off the Sacramento Range.  This is likely to increase in
convective coverage and vigor capable of 1-1.5"/hr rates, but
forward propagation is likely going to limit localized totals to
similar values.  This area has been recently hit with heavy
rainfall (including last evening) and while the environment is not
as conducive as last evening, repeating through similar areas
still has a solid possibility of widely scattered incident(s) of
flash flooding. 

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36590316 35450217 34780298 33540394 32690454
            31200429 30410434 30370506 31170598 31300612
            31590685 31600811 31530900 32160996 32970984
            33170818 33550740 33950699 34660643 35060609
            36060515 36530445