Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0312
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
907 PM EDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Areas affected...North Central Kansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040110Z - 040555Z

SUMMARY...Colliding outflow boundaries to continue potential for
localized flash flooding risk through early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic and surface analysis depict a
pair of active outflow boundaries  likely to intersect over the
next hour or two across portions of central KS.  The north to
south oriented line from Rush county south into Barber and
northern Oklahoma appears to be rapidly weakening as the leading
convergence is starting to weaken as cells continue to back shear
though with some south to north slow training.  The northern one
is arched from near Beatrice, Neb across north-central KS  from
Washington to Ottawa before flattening to the west into northern
Graham county.  Deep southeasterly surface to 850 flow still
intersects this line fairly orthogonally but also appears to be
balancing out as the core of the meso-high remains north toward
Kearney/Hastings region in NEB. 

At this time, strong convergence is starting to occur as the
outflows zipper from NW to ESE north of I-70.  DPVA from the
parent shortwave in SW KS is starting to slack and right entrance
influence to the jet over E CO is starting to slip north and east,
this will continue to veer the LLJ over the coming hours further
reducing convergence with the north-south boundary in favor of the
west-east.   Effective warm sector still has upper 60s and even a
few low 70s Tds and solid enough remaining 1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE to advect to maintain/support the ongoing convection. 
Eventually, the western cold pool should sever the connection but
in the mean time, with rates of 1.5-1.75"/hr and near 5kts of
forward propagation, nearly stationary elements of the
over-running convection will have the potential for spots of 2-4"
totals that may result in possible localized flash flooding
incident or two.

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   40339924 39939731 39379678 38749712 38509785
            38459891 38499989 39170042 40080074