Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
WPC Met Watch

 
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0344 (2017)
(Issued at 437 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017 )

MPD Selection
 


Graphic for MPD #0344

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0344
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
437 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA...NRN NJ...SERN NY...WRN CT...WRN
MA...SRN VT...NH...ME

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 192037Z - 200200Z

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AS WELL AS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION OVER THE SAME AREAS COULD RESULT IN 2-4"
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER SEVERAL HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A HIGHLY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN INCOMING
COLD FRONT AND HEIGHT FALLS ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG
WERE INDICATED ON THE LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS, WITH PWATS of
1.75-2.0" (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE). SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F WERE ADVECTING INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ON 10-20KT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SUPPORTING LOW LCLS (NEAR 1000 M) AND A RELATIVELY DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH EXCEEDING 4 KM. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND HEAVY RAINFALL RATES IN ANY
ROBUST CONVECTION THAT OCCURS. CURRENT RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW
RAINFALL RATES IN THE 1-2 IN/HR RANGE, WHICH IS ON PAR WITH FFG
VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WHILE THE CURRENT FLOW SETUP IS
NOT OVERLY CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT BACKWARD PROPAGATION, THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
SAME AREAS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THE LATEST HRRR AND HRRR-EXPERIMENTAL RUNS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS
AMONG MUCH OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE (HRRR, HRRR-EXPERIMENTAL,
WRF-NSSL, AND THE ARW) ON PORTIONS OF THE OUTLINED AREA RECEIVING
AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH 02Z. THERE IS SOME
SPREAD AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL FALL DUE TO A
COMPLEX INTERACTION AMONG MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES/COLD POOLS AND THE
COLD FRONT. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z.

RYAN

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...CAR...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...

LAT...LON   46966922 46926834 46616809 46146827 45536870
            44516964 43477080 42037206 41477263 40987317
            40437381 40127442 40057502 40187555 40607573
            41037528 41337493 41707445 42077419 42437389
            42997371 43577332 44137283 44667222 45297131
            46527018


Last Updated: 437 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017
 

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Weather Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Weather Prediction Center Web Team
Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 12-May-2022 19:44:52 GMT