MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0382
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
401 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...S CENT KANSAS... N CENT OKLAHOMA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 240800Z - 241200Z
 
SUMMARY...NEARLY STATIONARY CONVECTION TO PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS
WITH RATES CAPABLE TO EXCEED FFG VALUES LEADING TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...A N-S ORIENTED LINE OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO GROW/EXPAND GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 850MB FLOW TO
30-35 KTS AND SLIGHT VEERING FOR INCREASED ANGLE OF INCIDENCE TO A
FRONTAL ZONE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MCS LAST EVENING ACROSS
S CENT KS/N CENT OK.  THIS INCREASED MST CONVERGENCE SUPPORTS
ENOUGH ASCENT TO BREAK WEAK CAPPING IN THE VICINITY AND GIVEN GOOD
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR MUCAPES IN THE 2000 J/KG RANGE.  WEAK
STEERING FLOW IN THE 7-4H LAYER SUPPORTS CELL MOTIONS LESS THAN 10
KTS WHICH COUNTER TO THE LLJ/PROPAGATION VECTORS SUPPORTS
STATIONARY MOTIONS FOR THIS LINE TO ALLOW FOR COMPOUNDING TOTALS. 
THOUGH WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW THE DOWNDRAFTS ARE CAPABLE OF
SUPPRESSING UPDRAFT EFFICIENCY PARTICULARLY FURTHER SOUTH IN N
CENT OK WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/OUTFLOW ABOVE 4H IS LIMITED
TO LESS THAN 20 KTS. IR/WV LOOP AND AMVS SUGGEST 30-35 KT FLOW
ACROSS S CENT KS FROM CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED OUTFLOW FROM SW KS
COMPLEX TO SUPPORT STRONGER EVACUATION ACROSS COWLEY AND BUTLER
COUNTIES. 

STILL UPDRAFTS ARE GENERALLY NARROW AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHER
RATES EXPECTED WITH TPWS AOA 2" AND CAPES IN THE CURRENT RANGE AND
MODERATE 85H MST FLUX...STILL RATES OF 1.5"/HR ARE EXPECTED.
DURATION WILL ALSO BE LIMITED AS THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE OUTFLOW
FROM THE SW KS COMPLEX ADVANCES BY 3-4HRS.  STILL CAPABILITY OF
3-4" TOTALS IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA GIVEN INDIVIDUAL PRE-CURSORY CELL OVER KAY HAD
ALREADY PRODUCED UP TO 5" EARLIER THIS EVENING.  OBVIOUSLY CURRENT
ACTIVITY IN THE SAME AREA NEAR NEWKIRK OK WILL COMPOUND ALREADY
ONGOING FF SITUATION THERE POSSIBLY WITH TOTALS OVER 7-8" BY 12Z. 
 
 
GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   37989714 37839656 36599642 36239691 36229768 
            36569784 37269738