MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0384
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED......EASTERN KS/SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHEAST OK... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 180648Z - 181248Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO BACKBUILD...RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HORUS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ON A ELEVATED
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN KS INTO NORTHEAST OK AND
NORTHWEST AR. THIS BOUNDARY LIES IN THE BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY
(AS SEEN IN THE MUCAPE ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE). THE ACTIVITY
IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT...WITH
1.75 INCH VALUES JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION.

KSGF RADAR IS SHOWING HOURLY RATES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES (WHICH
COULD BE HAIL CONTAMINATED...BASED ON THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION). THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OPPOSES THE MID LEVEL LEVEL
FLOW...AND CORFIDI VECTORS DROP TO BELOW 10 KNOTS. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN BACKBUILDING CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY.

THERE IS A BETTER CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO QPF PLACEMENT AND
AMOUNTS AMONG THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE MEMBERS. THE
LATEST HRRR AND 00Z NAM CONEST SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAINFALL...AND THE CONEST SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
THAN 6 INCHES. THE TIMING IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGESTS
THAT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY.

HAYES

 

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39789815 39649686 38689450 37069322 36219404 
            36239481 36559564 37109622 37979741 38609789 
            38669787