MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0385
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
324 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED......EXTREME SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHERN NM/PORTIONS OF
WEST TX... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 180723Z - 181323Z
 
SUMMARY...DEEP MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE
WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL CONVECTION WITH VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE CONTINUES TO FEED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST NM EARLY
THIS MORNING. TOPS HAVE WARMED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD FEED NEWLY DEVELOPING
CONVECTION. 

THE BEST INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION...WHERE THE BEST CONVECTION FORMS AS IT MOVES NORTH.
THE CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE
LATEST HRRR AND 00Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN WILL BECOME FOCUSED IN TWO AREAS. THE FIRST IS CLOSE TO THE
CIRCULATION OF ODILE OVER SOUTHEAST AZ...WHERE LOW TOPPED WARM
PROCESS RAINFALL CONTINUES. THE SECOND IS ACROSS SOUTHERN NM INTO
PORTIONS OF WEST TX...IN THE AREA WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX.

LOCAL 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE NAM CONEST
SUGGESTING THAT 6 INCH AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST SSEO MEAN NEIGHBORHOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES SUGGEST THAT THAT HIGHEST THREAT FOR FLOODING IS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NM AND PORTIONS OF WEST TX.

GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH
FLOODING IS LIKELY. THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...LUB...MAF...SJT...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33670612 33570435 33490313 33180244 32610144 
            31940118 30830149 30150291 30350562 30680892 
            31511096 32620998 33510798