MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0386
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
348 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED......CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 180747Z - 181347Z
 
SUMMARY...A LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CROSSING PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX...RESULTING IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH
FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL TX CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 INCHES (ESTIMATES BASED ON THE KGRK RADAR.
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW REMAINS NEAR 20 KNOTS (AS SEEN ON LOCAL WVP).
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ACCESS TO A POOL OF 2.20 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AIR...AND THE INFLOW AND MOISTURE SHOULD SUSTAIN THE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z.

HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (MOST NOTABLY THE LATEST HRRR AND 00Z NAM
CONEST) PLACED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE CLUSTER
AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD. THE LATEST SSEO MEAN NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITIES START DROPPING AFTER 13Z...ABOUT THE TIME THE BEST
INSTABILITY SHOULD START WANING. BEFORE THAT TIME...FLASH FLOODING
IS LIKELY.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   31189788 31139765 31149753 30839693 30479638 
            30079625 29979627 29629632 29099657 28879682 
            28759704 28749716 28869763 29119799 29529838 
            29769851 29899858 29899859 30209864 30369867 
            30389866 30909867 31139830