WPC Met Watch |
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0417 (2022) |
(Issued at 914 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022
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MPD Selection |
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0417
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
914 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022
Areas affected...Southern/Central Arizona
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 300113Z - 300613Z
Summary...Locally heavy rainfall, up to 1"/hr, will continue
through the early evening and may lead to localized flash flooding.
Discussion...As of 01Z, convection continues to develop along a
surface trough draped across central Arizona per regional radar
mosaic and IR satellite imagery, which has shown recent rapid
cooling cloud tops over the last hour or so. This convection is on
the gradient of the better moisture axis, analyzed to be in excess
of 1" PW across southern Arizona and also within a ribbon of
higher untapped SBCAPE of about 1000-1500 J/kg per recent
mesoanalysis. With fairly weak mean flow, storm motions have been
slow. The last several runs of the HRRR have performed well and
show these loosely organized line clusters continuing for another
few hours with cell mergers and boundary interactions helping to
foster additional development on the periphery before loss of
remaining daytime heating should lead to waning deep convection.
Rain rates up to 1"/hr have been observed with some of the
stronger cores earlier and with the slow, erratic storm motions,
isolated pockets of 1"+ totals will be possible. This rainfall may
lead to isolated instances of flash flooding, particularly over
any sensitive burn scar, dry wash, or urban area.
Taylor
ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 35661249 34751095 33691061 33041150 32581308
32581373 33191400 34721411 35631362
Last Updated: 914 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022
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