WPC Met Watch |
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0443 (2022) |
(Issued at 248 PM EDT Mon Jul 04 2022
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MPD Selection |
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0443
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
248 PM EDT Mon Jul 04 2022
Areas affected...western New Mexico and eastern Arizona
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 041847Z - 050047Z
Summary...Monsoonal moisture will again contribute to locally
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flood potential through the
early evening.
Discussion...Radar and satellite both depicted deepening
convection amid strong insolation. A few areas of locally heavy
rainfall were also evident, with a few spots of 1 inch/hr rainfall
rates becoming evident beneath the heavier cores. These storms
were initially forming along terrain-favored areas and ridgelines,
and were moving very slowly given light wind profiles beneath
300mb across the discussion area. The slow movement and 0.9-1.2
inch PW values were allowing for storms to produce wetting rains,
and rocky soils/burn scars will allow for efficient runoff and
localized flash flooding through the afternoon.
Current indications are that the flash flood threat will persist
through at least sunset (well after 00Z) per model guidance and
observations. The area of greatest concern extends from
east-central Arizona into west-central New Mexico (including areas
west of I-25 and south of I-40, where models (particularly the 12Z
HREF) suggest the greatest chance of heavier rainfall will exist.
Cook
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...
ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 36550844 36220653 35450589 34250613 33000647
32120690 31880750 31780817 31390815 31210829
31220971 31371095 32071092 34221081 35151108
36141047
Last Updated: 248 PM EDT Mon Jul 04 2022
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