Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
WPC Met Watch

 
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0443 (2022)
(Issued at 248 PM EDT Mon Jul 04 2022 )

MPD Selection
 


Graphic for MPD #0443

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0443
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
248 PM EDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Areas affected...western New Mexico and eastern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041847Z - 050047Z

Summary...Monsoonal moisture will again contribute to locally
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flood potential through the
early evening.

Discussion...Radar and satellite both depicted deepening
convection amid strong insolation.  A few areas of locally heavy
rainfall were also evident, with a few spots of 1 inch/hr rainfall
rates becoming evident beneath the heavier cores.  These storms
were initially forming along terrain-favored areas and ridgelines,
and were moving very slowly given light wind profiles beneath
300mb across the discussion area.  The slow movement and 0.9-1.2
inch PW values were allowing for storms to produce wetting rains,
and rocky soils/burn scars will allow for efficient runoff and
localized flash flooding through the afternoon.

Current indications are that the flash flood threat will persist
through at least sunset (well after 00Z) per model guidance and
observations.  The area of greatest concern extends from
east-central Arizona into west-central New Mexico (including areas
west of I-25 and south of I-40, where models (particularly the 12Z
HREF) suggest the greatest chance of heavier rainfall will exist.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36550844 36220653 35450589 34250613 33000647
            32120690 31880750 31780817 31390815 31210829
            31220971 31371095 32071092 34221081 35151108
            36141047


Last Updated: 248 PM EDT Mon Jul 04 2022
 

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Weather Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Weather Prediction Center Web Team
Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 12-May-2022 19:44:52 GMT