MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0458
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
340 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST CO...NORTH-CENTRAL NM

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 151940Z - 160130Z

SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING
THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY OF SOUTHWEST CO AND ALSO
LOCALLY DOWN ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NM. THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS AND ALSO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE...AND THE
GOES-16 GEOCOLOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CONVECTION
FOCUSED OVER THESE RIDGES ALONG WITH ADJACENT PLATEAU AREAS. SOME
MODEST CLOUD TOP COOLING HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE LAST 1 TO 2
HOURS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL DIURNAL HEATING AND FOCUSING
OF INSTABILITY NEAR SOME OF THE SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES CONTINUES.

THE MOISTURE PROFILES ARE ANOMALOUS MOIST AND ESPECIALLY OVER IN
SOUTHWEST CO WHERE PWATS ARE RUNNING OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MONSOON PATTERN. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ENHANCED RAINFALL RATE POTENTIAL.

THE LATEST HIRES MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. THE MAIN THREAT AGAIN WILL BE TO THE
HIGHLY SENSITIVE AND SLOPED BURN SCARS ALONG WITH AREAS
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THEM WHERE ENHANCED RUNOFF WILL BE LIKELY.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   38770675 38600606 38280568 37930544 37270511
            36310513 35650541 35440573 35460619 35550656
            35870689 36060697 36510704 36920715 37150749
            37110790 37200841 37550886 38090900 38500899
            38670868 38520815 38570765