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WPC Met Watch

 
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0499
(Issued at 721 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017 )

MPD Selection
 


Graphic for MPD #0499

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0499
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
721 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 172317Z - 180330Z

SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT IS DIMINISHING...A FEW MORE HOURS OF
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM ERN NY INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. MAXIMUM ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR AT 23Z CONTINUED TO SHOW A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NWRN ME THROUGH CNTRL
NH...SRN VT INTO E-CNTRL NY. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR CONTINUE
TO BE OBSERVED WITHIN SOME OF THE HEAVIER CORES. MLCAPE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO SERN
NY...HIGHER TOWARD THE SOUTH...PER 22Z DATA FROM THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE. INFRARED CLOUD TOPS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF WARMING
IN MANY AREAS...BUT A FEW POCKETS OF COOLING TOPS REMAIN ACROSS
NRN NEW ENGLAND AND PORTIONS OF ERN NEW YORK.

ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
MPD THREAT AREA DESPITE DWINDLING INSTABILITY GIVEN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES PEAKING NEAR 1.5 INCHES PER RECENT GPS DATA OVER WRN
CT AND FAVORABLE PLACEMENT WITHIN A DIVERGENT/DIFFLUENT REGION
AHEAD OF A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. 16-18Z RUNS OF THE
HRRR_EXPERIMENTAL APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE SETUP BEST...BUT ARE A
BIT SLOW. THE IDEA IS TO CONTINUE EMBEDDED RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2
IN/HR EXTENDING ANYWHERE FROM NRN ME...WHERE FFG VALUES ARE
LOWEST...TO SWRN NEW ENGLAND AND ERN NY UNTIL ABOUT 03Z WHEN
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE TOO MINIMAL TO SUPPORT HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...CAR...GYX...OKX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...

LAT...LON   46856875 45826869 43777047 42577197 41477320
            41537415 41907439 42717405 43477306 44177187
            44917106 45617035 46576953


Last Updated: 721 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017
 

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 13-May-2015 19:29:02 GMT