MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0520
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1117 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN LA...SOUTHERN MS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 031516Z - 031846Z
 
SUMMARY...BACKBUILDING TRAINING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WITH ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH KLIX RADAR
IMAGERY SHOW THAT AN OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN LA HAS PUSHED NORTHWEST ALONG A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED LINE TO JUST SOUTH OF HBG TO HDC.  THIS OUTFLOW
INTERACTING WITH POSITIVE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND
SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS BECOME A NEW FOCUS FOR
BACKBUILDING/TRAINING CONVECTION.  DEEP MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION....WITH THE 12Z LIX SOUNDING SHOWING VERY
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE...WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2.50
INCHES.  EXPECT RAINFALL RATES IN THE 1 TO 1.50 INCH  
RANGE WITHIN THE MORE ROBUST CELLS. FOR THE 3-HR PERIOD ENDING AT
18 UTC...THE 14 UTC RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL AND PARALLEL HRRR SHOW
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2-INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
HIGHLIGHTED AREA...WITH MARKEDLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. 
HOWEVER...GIVEN  
THE RAPIDLY COOLING TOPS ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS BATCH OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUSPECT THESE AMOUNTS ARE UNDERDONE.

PEREIRA 

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   31048920 30798907 30288968 30108980 29609021 
            29359079 29649141 30459079 30868981