Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0601
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
701 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Areas affected...central to north-central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061100Z - 061630Z

SUMMARY...A likely but localized flash flood threat will focus
across portions of central to north-central TX through 16Z. Hourly
rainfall of 1 to 3+ in/hr and spotty 3 to 6 inch rainfall totals
are expected. Overlap of additional heavy rain areas with
sensitive/saturated soils due to recent heavy rainfall will
increase potential for renewed flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery through 1030Z showed that
showers and thunderstorms continued to expand to the southwest of
Fort Worth and into portions of the Edwards Plateau. MRMS-derived
rain rates were locally over 2 in/hr between Granbury and Meridan
and were increasing toward 2 in/hr over Mason County. A
north-south elongated 700 mb low/trough was located between Fort
Worth and Abilene, co-located with PW values between 2.0 and 2.2
inches per 10Z SPC mesoanalysis data. SPC mesoanalysis data also
showed the area of storms southwest of Fort Worth was along a
north-south oriented instability gradient, with little to no CAPE
over the eastern third of TX with 1000-2000 J/kg to the west.
Meanwhile, 925-850 mb winds were parallel to I-35 between San
Antonio and Dallas-Fort Worth, while these winds were veered to
the west across the Edwards Plateau and Rolling Plains regions,
allowing for confluent flow to the west of I-35. Weak deeper layer
steering flow and the relatively stronger low level inflow layer
will set the stage for potential training and back-building of
cells.

Given the environment in place, potential for slow moving cores of
heavy rain, peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches will be
possible along with higher end totals in the 3 to 6 inch range
over the next 6 hours. Overlap of these higher rainfall totals
with portions of central TX that received heavy rainfall over the
past 72 hours will increase the threat of flash flooding. However,
these higher end totals should be fairly low in coverage. So
therefore, while flash flooding is considered likely over the next
several hours, coverage is expected to remain rather isolated.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   33169754 32579723 31499731 30399791 29749868
            29699954 30189988 30909965 31829927 32519877
            33169824