MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0660
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
459 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 190955Z - 191500Z
 
SUMMARY...VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE. GIVEN VERY
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND CELL-TRAINING...FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY SMALL BUT PERSISTENT BAND OF INTENSE
CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING OF CONVECTIVE TOPS
WITH A COUPLE OF OVERSHOOTING TOPS NOTED AS WELL. THIS IS LIKELY
RESULT IN AN INTENSIFICATION OF RAINFALL RATES WHICH ARE BEING
SUGGESTED IN THE LATEST DUAL-POL RADAR ANALYSIS.

THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN A DIVERGENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
AND JUST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING
FACILITATED BY AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT THAT EXTENDS OFFSHORE OUT
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ALSO A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH
PWATS HANGING AROUND 2 INCHES.

THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
DUE TO STRONGER JET FORCING ALOFT AND A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. THE 00Z ARW AND 00Z NMMB BOTH SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING.
GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED
OVERNIGHT...THESE ADDITIONAL TOTALS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME
LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND/OR FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   30718429 30598337 30028407 29558501 29688544 
            29948556 30288535 30578487