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WPC Met Watch

 
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0701 (2016)
(Issued at 848 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 )

MPD Selection
 


Graphic for MPD #0701
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0701
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
848 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTY OF CENT AND SW TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 251247Z - 251747Z
 
SUMMARY...MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED SLOW MOVING/TRAINING
CONVECTION MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS. 

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR/3.9UM IR AND RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE A
POTENT BUT WEAKENING MCV LIFTING DUE NORTH ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU WHILE LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING NNE ACROSS E
CHIHUAHUA.  IN THE SHORT-TERM (NEXT HOUR OR SO) AS THE MCV
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST THE EASTERN IMPETUS FOR THE
FORCING/CONVERGENCE BAND HAS BECOME N-S ORIENTED OVER UVALDE TO W
KERR COUNTY WHILE SUFFICIENT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW IS
ENHANCED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY PARTICULARLY AT THE INTERFACE OF A
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENTERING THE CENTRAL HILL
COUNTY.   THIS INTERFACE,FAVORABLE ORIENTATION ALOFT FOR
TRAINING/OUTFLOW, AND LYING ALONG REMAINING INSTABILITY GRADIENT
(UP TO 1000 J/KG) SUPPORTS A NARROW CORRIDOR FOR FLASH FLOODING. 

FURTHER SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE BIG BEND REGION...BROAD WAA
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF LARGER SCALE
SHORTWAVE...THIS HAS SUPPORTED MAXIMIZED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SIERRA MADRE AS WELL AS RIDGING THE LOW
LEVEL PATTERN TO ORIENT THE OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST SOUTH OF 30N. AS THE MAIN WAVE LIFTS NORTH FORWARD
PROPAGATION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD INCREASED INSTABILITY
WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION...AND WITH SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SOME OF THESE CELL MAY SET
THE STAGE WITH EARLY MODERATE RAINFALL OR EVEN POSE SOME LOCALIZED
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AS CELL MERGERS FROM THE N-S BAND SHIFT
EAST.  AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY ALONG WITH RECENTLY WETTED SOIL CONDITIONS FROM LAST
EVENING'S CONVECTIVE RAINFALL...POSES A FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENTLY WPC PREFERENCE FOR AN EVOLUTION
SIMILAR TO THE NSSL-WRF ALONG WITH OTHER HI-RES SOLUTION SUCH AS
THE GEM-REGIONAL SUGGEST TOTALS IN THE NEXT 6HRS OVER 3" ARE
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL
UNFOLD EXACTLY TO LEAD TO LIKELY FLASH FLOODING BUT IS HIGH ENOUGH
FOR IT TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z.   

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   30749964 30699902 30319880 29729874 28839935 
            28379972 27990057 28670138 29640158 30010130 
            30210085 30330011 


Last Updated: 848 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016
 

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