Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0951
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
648 PM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...far southwestern NM into central/southern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052247Z - 060445Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are likely to expand in coverage into
portions of southwestern NM into southeastern/south-central AZ
through the late evening. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are
expected across these portions of the Desert Southwest on a
localized basis (isolated 3 inches possible).

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite, lightning and radar imagery from
2230Z showed monsoon thunderstorms ongoing across the Mogollon Rim
into the higher terrain of western NM. Estimated instability via
the 22Z SPC mesoanalysis varied from southwestern NM across
central to southeastern AZ, but MLCAPE ranged from ~500 to 2000
J/kg. CIN remained south of the Mogollon Rim but that has been
eroding as evidenced by convective development across some of the
higher terrain of southeastern AZ.

The upper pattern is not much different than yesterday at this
time across the Desert Southwest with an elongated ridge centered
over the central AZ/NM border, however moisture values have
increased for some locations of AZ compared to this time
yesterday, especially closer to southwestern AZ where blended TPW
values showed a greater coverage of 1.6 to 2.0 inch PW values.
Thunderstorms are likely to continue expanding in coverage due to
rain-cooled outflow and new development along terrain features
over the next 2-4 hours. Increasing coverage, especially across
southeastern AZ, should lead to merging and clustering of cells
with westward propagation following the mean steering flow into
the low level easterlies currently in place across southern AZ.
There remains uncertainty with the convective coverage across
central to south-central AZ due to lingering CIN but storm driven
outflow may be enough to overcome the inhibition in some areas. 

Despite an expected evolution toward progressive cell motions
toward the west, the environment will be supportive of 0.5 to 1.0
inches of rain in 15-30 minutes and 1-2 inches in an hour. Peak
storm totals are likely to be in the 1-2 inch range, but isolated
2 to 3 inch totals cannot be ruled out through ~05Z.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   35311157 34911079 33960944 33230805 32540786
            32030792 31140833 30941050 31151159 31751241
            32871272 33721270 34551261 35041232