MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0102
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEASTERN LA/SOUTHEASTERN AR/NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL MS... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 311828Z - 312228Z
 
SUMMARY...THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS CONVECTION BREAKS OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY THE CASE ACROSS REGIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN AR AND NORTHERN MS WHICH SAW HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE REGARDING STORM
EVOLUTION...BUT ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION MAY POSE HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL AR THROUGH TEXARKANA TX AND INTO
EAST-CENTRAL TX. MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES WERE NOTED IN THE VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH MAY BE FOCI FOR INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON.
IN PARTICULAR...ONE SUCH BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MS/AL
COULD POSE A THREAT FOR BACKBUILDING CONVECTION IF ANY CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS WERE TO LATCH ONTO THIS OLD THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD REGION OF CU
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN LA/CENTRAL MS...GENERALLY
ALIGNED IN A SW-NE FASHION. CAPPING APPEARS TO STILL BE AN ISSUE
PER 12Z RAOBS AND THE LIMITED VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT ON SATELLITE.
ALL MODELS EVENTUALLY BREAK OUT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST
THE INCREASING LLJ AND MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 2500
J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE ACTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION
STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE SPREAD IN RECENT CAMS.
OVERALL...EXPECT HOURLY RATES TO APPROACH THE 1 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE
WITHIN THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35098874 33878830 32728894 32139020 32279136 
            33369155 34939027