Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1431
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 PM EDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Areas affected...Eastern GA...Eastern SC...Eastern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031842Z - 040000Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving showers and storms continue to increase in
coverage and intensity this afternoon and continuing into the
early evening hours. Some instances of flash flooding will be
possible through 8 pm local time with localized rainfall rates
approaching 3 inches per hour with the strongest storms.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars are indicating a steady
increase in convective coverage from eastern Georgia up through
the eastern Carolinas early this afternoon. GOES infrared
satellite imagery indicates the strongest updrafts are currently
over southeastern Georgia, and this will likely be the case later
this afternoon farther to the northeast across the outlook area.
These storms are developing in a very moist and moderately
unstable environment with PWs of 2.0 to 2.4 inches, and mixed
layer CAPE on the order of 750 to 1500 J/kg based on the latest
SPC mesoanalysis.

An examination of the latest CAM guidance indicates that the
convection over Georgia is likely underdone based on ongoing radar
trends, but otherwise the HRRR and RRFS seem to have a reasonable
depiction. These solutions generally have scattered QPF maxima of
3-5 inches, with much of this likely falling within a 2 hour time
period for any given location. Therefore, some instances of flash
flooding are possible.

Hamrick

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...JAX...MHX...RAH...
TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   35847803 35447706 34737708 33907783 33677871
            32987928 32118063 31138132 30898175 30818233
            30948304 31298341 31818367 32268366 32698335
            32918297 33468161 34318085 35108039 35707923