Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1432
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Areas affected...North-Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031916Z - 032300Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to
affect portions of north-central early this afternoon, and some
instances of flash flooding will remain possible through 6 pm
local time.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars are indicating persistent
slow moving convection, mainly south of the Interstate 20 corridor
from Waco to Tyler, with episodes of repeated back-building cells
over the past several hours. Recent hourly rainfall estimates of
2-3 inches per hour have been observed with the storms between
Corsicana and Fairfield, with some rainfall totals near 6 inches
since this morning. These cells are also developing in an
environment with deep warm layer cloud depths and thus are
efficient rainfall producers, along with anomalous PWs near 2
inches and a well defined instability gradient oriented southwest
to northeast.

The latest CAM guidance suggests this trend should continue for
the next few hours, and should be tapering off towards 6 pm local
time. The latest HRRR seems to have a good overall initialization
when compared to ongoing radar trends, whereas the RRFS is
probably too far north with the expected QPF. An additional 1-3
inches of rainfall is likely.

Hamrick

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   33089561 32739521 32139555 31149711 30979773
            31109800 31409807 31819784 32189746 32639672