MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0218
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 250637Z - 251237Z
 
SUMMARY...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY
TRAIN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY THIS
MORNING.  TRAINING CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 2-3
INCHES...RAISING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS WHILE
RADAR INDICATES INCREASING RETURNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MN INTO NORTHWESTERN IA THIS MORNING.  EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT AFFORDED BY A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE REGION COMBINES WITH THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT PRODUCED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE TOP OF AN UPPER RIDGE.  UPWIND
PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGEST INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD TRACK STEADILY
ACROSS THIS AREA TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER THE CONTINUANCE
OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH FAVORABLE
UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO ENCOURAGE REGENERATION UPSTREAM..WITH
CELLS POTENTIALLY TRAINING OVER THE SAME REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.  LATEST RUNS OF THE HRW-ARW..HRW-NMMB AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE NSSL WRF..GENERALLY AGREE ON AN AXIS OF HEAVY AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 2-3 INCHES FROM S CENTRAL MN THROUGH CENTRAL IA BY 12Z.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   42729469 43189482 43909530 44499541 44669444 44149312
            42729207 41439230 41079302 41699429 42269462 42729469