MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0272
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
807 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IN...WESTERN OH

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 250010Z - 250310Z

SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION TRACKING NORTH AHEAD OF CLOSED
LOW WILL MOVE OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN EARLIER... WHICH
COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IN AND NEARBY WESTERN OH THIS EVENING...AS MUCAPE VALUES
REMAIN IN THE 500 J/KG RANGE. THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16
CLEAN IR LOOP SHOWED SLOWLY WARMING TOPS...BUT PERSISTENT DIFLUENT
FLOW NORTH OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN KY HAS PROVIDED
SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT TO MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION.

THE INSTABILITY IS HELPING TO PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES NEAR AN INCH
AN HOUR (PER THE KILN RADAR) OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED BETWEEN 2.00
AND 4.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL (PER THE KILN STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
PRODUCT). THE LOW TOPPED STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
MAKERS...CONSIDERING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE REMAINED
BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.25 INCHES (AS SEEN ON THE MOST RECENT RAP
ANALYSIS AND BLENDED TPW IMAGES).

THE LATEST HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE CONVECTION...AND IT SHOWS THE CELLS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS THEY
MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW THROUGH 03Z. THE HRRR SHOWED
LOCAL 2.00 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO WHERE TH HEAVIER
RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER. BASED ON THIS...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH A
MARGINAL FLASH FLOOD RISK SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...IWX...LMK...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   41448462 40958419 39708386 38968382 38468438
            38518518 38958556 39998546 41308538