MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0614
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
835 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST ND/NORTHEAST SD AND WEST/CENTRAL MN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 290034Z - 290634Z
 
SUMMARY...ARRIVING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND NORTHWARD
RETURNING WARM FRONT COULD SET THE STAGE FOR MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A BATCH OF UPPER-HEIGHT FALLS IS BEGINNING TO
SWEEP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING. A RETURNING NORTH WARM
FRONT IS ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT AND
MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION, BASICALLY 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH PWS
POOLING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA. THE GUIDANCE,
HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS, INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
OR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLASSIC NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MOST MODELS SUGGEST 850MB WINDS AVERAGING OUT
AROUND 35 KTS. THESE CONDITIONS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN
MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINS. ACROSS NORTHERN MN NEAR
THE 850MB WARM FRONT CONVECTION IS ALREADY PRESENT AND PERSISTING,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED ISSUES. HOWEVER THE POTENTIALLY
BIGGER AREA IS FARTHER SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER ISOLATED CELLS FROM SD COULD ALLOW
THE CAP TO BREAK AND A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN ND/NORTHEASTERN SD AND PROPAGATE
DOWNSTREAM IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT OR WEST CENTRAL
MN. THE 12Z ARW/NMMB AND NSSLWRF ALONG WITH THE 22Z HRRR ALL LIKE
THIS CORRIDOR FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSE RAIN RATES,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING MAINLY AFTER 02Z.


MUSHER  

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...DLH...FGF...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   49389438 48439226 47099403 45829346 45039347 
            44949532 45439619 44899790 45149887 46209825 
            46859760 47559620 49039582