Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
WPC Met Watch

 
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0694 (2016)
(Issued at 1008 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 )

MPD Selection
 


Graphic for MPD #0694
 
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0694
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1008 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN NE...WESTERN SD INTO CENTRAL ND 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 240205Z - 240730Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION TRAINING ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN NE
AND WESTERN SD COULD RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL ND THROUGH INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TRAIN ACROSS FAR WESTERN NE
AND WESTERN SD THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION IS FOLLOWING AN AXIS
OF 500-1000 J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE EXTENDING FROM FAR NORTHEAST
CO INTO SOUTHWEST ND...IN A RIBBON OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. IR CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR -67 CELSIUS ACROSS FAR WESTERN SD... ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BEST CONVECTION. 

WHILE THE KUDX RADAR HAS SHOWN HOURLY RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1.00
AND 1.50 INCHES OVER FAR WESTERN NE INTO SOUTHWEST SD...MESONET
SITES INDICATED THAT THE HOURLY RATES WERE CLOSER TO AN INCH. THE
00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF RAPID CITY SHOWED A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS...INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF HAIL. THIS HAS BEEN
CONFIRMED BY HAIL REPORTS IN WESTERN SD EARLIER. 

THE REGIONAL RADARS ALSO INDICATED THAT CONVECTION WAS TRYING TO
SPREAD NORTH NORTHEAST ALONG A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM
WESTERN SD INTO CENTRAL ND... WHERE THE MOISTURE PROFILES WERE
BETTER. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHOWED THAT
THE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE REMAINS IN PLACE...AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z. 

THE STRONG FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF THE TRAINING
SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS. THE LATEST HRRR/EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SHOWED
A STRIPE OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN SD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND...AS THE CELLS
TRACK NORTH...WHILE THE LINE MOVES SLOWLY EAST. 
THERE IS ALMOST NO HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THAT TAKES THE
TRAINING CONVECTION INTO CENTRAL ND...BUT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...
AS WELL AS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SEEN ON THE 00Z KBIS
RADAR...THE THREAT COULD EXTEND INTO THIS REGION.

TO THIS POINT...THE HRRR HAS BEEN TOO HIGH WITH ITS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THE TRAINING CONVECTION...AND COULD BE TOO HIGH GOING
FORWARD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LINE STARTS
TO BECOME MORE OUTFLOW DOMINATED AS IT REACHES THE BETTER
INSTABILITY...WHICH COULD ALSO LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
HOWEVER...THE TRAINING CONVECTION COULD STILL PRESENTS A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...CYS...FGF...LBF...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   48690048 48489932 47849893 46949947 42980200 
            42310266 42570352 43040368 43580369 44520365 
            46430310 47730216 


Last Updated: 1008 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016
 

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Weather Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Weather Prediction Center Web Team
Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 12-May-2022 19:44:52 GMT