Ensemble forecasting
Advantages
- Ensemble mean is generally superior
- however during summer will not forecast the real heavy events. The model maxes may not ever overlap
- Ensembles provide
- a measure of expected skill or confidence
- a quantitative basis for probabilistic forecasting (but only if calibrated
- a rational framework for forecast verification
- information for targeted observations
Limitations/Challenges
- Not clear how to optimally specify the initial conditions (singular vectors, breeding, perturbed observations)
- Requires more computer resources
- grid spacing versus more model runs?