Forecaster Challenges: Intelligent Use of non-hydrostatic Model Guidance

• Appearance of small-scale features (e.g., thunderstorms) can be unsettling

  • convection at 500 mblooks like noise!
  • Convective initiation anddecay is a significantchallenge even for non-hydrostatic models
  • The model will ALWAYSbe wrong -- the trick is toassess how much!!

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