So how do I predict subjectively quantitative precipitation. There is no one magic method. What works for light amounts may not work for heavier ones
Analyze situation looking at the synoptic and mesoscale environment. (use the current data and model output to assess situation
- Does the environment favor high rainfall rates.
Use model guidance as a first guess but understand model limitations and biases.
- Based on model output, radar and satellite imagery and conventional upper air data, try to figure out where rainfall will be most intense for the longest period. This is where the heaviest rainfall will occur.
- Modify model guidance based on your understanding of the physics that determines how much rainfall will fall.
- Calibrate forecasts through verification. Verification is very important for manual and computer generated forecast. But how do you verify a forecast.
- verification needs to be done regionally with various verification schemes.