An Application of Pattern Recognition to Medium Range Forecasting

Contents

1. Slide 1
   
   
2. How Might I begin the Forecast Process ?
   
   
3. It is easy to get lost in the details...unless we keep in mind the BIG PICTURE !
   
   
4. Main Objectives
   
   
5. What is a D-3, D+0, or D+3 Mean?
   
   
6. How representative are D-3, D+0, D+3, D+5, and D+8 charts in depicting the longwave pattern ?
   
   
7. How do I begin to interpret a D+3, D+5, or D+8 chart using a D-3 chart?
   
   
8. General application of D+3 means
   
   
9. More Complex Application of d+3's
   
   
10. How can I access Mean 500 mb patterns on the internet?
    
    
11. A Case Study of Pattern Recognition and Related MRF/ECMWF Errors
    
    
12. Slide 12
    
    
13. Slide 13
    
    
14. Slide 14
    
    
15. Slide 15
    
    
16. Question 1.
    
    
17. Slide 17
    
    
18. Slide 18
    
    
19. Slide 19
    
    
20. May 18: Errors in Flattening Pattern
    
    
21. May 19: More Progressive Pattern Errors
    
    
22. May 20: Continued Progressive Pattern Errors
    
    
23. Question 2
    
    
24. Slide 24
    
    
25. Slide 25
    
    
26. Error pattern consistency
    
    
27. May 23: Gulf of Alaska Low Deepening
    
    
28. May 24: Downstream Amplification
    
    
29. May 25: Models' Response too late. Pacific Deamplification already begun
    
    
30. Question 3
    
    
31. May 28: More Deamplification Errors
    
    
32. May 29: Pattern Progressive over N. America, but beginning to Amplify in Eastern Pacific
    
    
33. Question 4
    
    
34. Now that we've looked at a few longwave pattern changes we might begin to answer why...
    
    
35. Other important Considerations
    
    
36. How important is the 12 hour difference in run time between the ECMWF and MRF?
    
    
37. How do I adjust MOS in a regime of High Uncertainty?
    
    
38. How do I adjust MOS in a period of higher than average certainty ?
    
    
39. Well, How did we do (in achieving the Main Objectives ?)
    
    
40. Conclusion of : An Application of Pattern Recognition to Medium Range Forecasting
    
    
41. Slide 41
    
    
42. Slide 42
    
    
43. Slide 43
    
    
44. Slide 44
    
    
45. Slide 45
    
    
46. May 29: Pattern Progessive over N. America, but beginning to Amplify in Eastern Pacific
    
    
47. May 31: Problems with handling of Eastern Pacific Ridge
    
    
48. June 2: Eastern Pacific Upper Ridge still a key Player
    
    
49. June 3: MRF/ECMWF underestimate Downstream digging along W Coast
    
    
50. June 4: Models on to CA sys, but MRF keeps EPAC ridge too strong
    
    
51. June 12: Extreme Amplification in the Eastern Pacific...but the MRF/ECMWF
    
    
52. June 13: Models miss new system in the Wrn Gulf of Alaska
    
    
53. Question 1
    
    
54. Question 2
    
    
55. May 23: Gulf of Alaska Low Deepening
    
    
56. May 24: Downstream Amplification
    
    
57. May 25: Models' Response too late. Pacific Deamplification already begun
    
    
58. Slide 58
    
    
59. Slide 59
    
    
60. Slide 60
    
    
61. Slide 61
    
    
62. Cyclonic Patterns in the Gulf of Alaska can be quite challenging too!
    
    
63. Question 3:
    
    
64. Conclusion of Western CONUS Reviews
    
    

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Last updated:
January 08, 2001 (Monday)

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