NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: January 25, 2010


This meeting was led by David Novak (HPC) and attended by Chris Caruso Magee (NCO); Jordan Alpert (EMC); Shrinivas Moorthi (EMC); Geoff Dimego (EMC); Eric Rogers (EMC); Yuejian Zhu (EMC); Mary Hart (EMC); Suranjana Saha (EMC); Chad Cary (EMC); Vera Gerald (EMC); Jamese Sims (EMC); Stephen Jascourt (UCAR/COMET); Steve Silberberg (AWC); Jason Levit (AWC); Andy Dean (SPC); Richard Pasch (TPC); Mike Brennan (TPC); Joe Sienkiewicz (OPC); Jim Hoke (HPC); Keith Brill (HPC); Kathy Gilbert (MDL); Andy Edman (WR); Dave Myrick (WR); Bernard Meisner (SR); Pete Browning (CR); and Dave Radell (ER)


1. NCO (Chris Caruso Magee)



A parallel evaluation is ongoing. Implementation is planned for February 23. See:

Participating evaluators should specifically evaluate benefits listed in the charter.



The RUC forecast projection is being extended to 18 h and a small bundle was added to assure model stability. This implementation is planned for March 2, 2010. A TIN will be posted shortly. There are no plans to distribute the 13-18 hour products on the NOAAport SBN.


Hurr Wave To Multi Grid Wave Model

A parallel evaluation for upgrading the Hurricane Wave to the global multi-grid wave model is expected to begin soon, with an implementation planned for March 30, 2010. RFCs’ have been submitted and A TIN will be posted shortly.



A significant update to the GFS is planned for late Spring 2010 (see section 2a below).


For the latest schedule updates see:


A question arose regarding the NCO process for implementing model bug fixes. Changes are prioritized depending on the level of effort and urgency. For example, emergency changes are implemented quickly while bug fixes having little forecast impact may be delayed.



2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (Jordan Alpert)


The next GFS implementation in planned for late Spring 2010 and includes:

-improvements to the shallow and deep convection parameterizations. There is a dramatic reduction in grid point storms (colloquially known as “precip bombs” or “grid-scale feedback”), which have plagued the GFS.

-increase in resolution (to T574 64L or ~27 km grid spacing).

-replacement of shortwave radiation from NASA based version with random cloud overlap to AER based RRTM with maximum/random cloud overlap.

-inclusion of vertical advection of moisture, ozone and cloud condensate based on positive definite advection scheme.

-changes are also made to boundary layer scheme and gravity wave drag.


A major upgrade to the Climate Forecast System is planned for Q1 of FY11. Details of the implementation are being developed.


Changes include improvements to the shallow and deep convection parameterizations and an increase in the GFS resolution (to T574 64L or ~27 km grid spacing).


2b. Global Ensemble Prediction System (Yuejian Zhu)

GEFS upgrade ongoing (see above).


2c. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB)(Geoff Dimego)


The RUC extension to an18 h forecast projection is planned for March 2, 2010. (See above).



Expect the transition of the RUC to the WRF-ARW this fiscal year. The model slot will be named the Rapid Refresh. The domain will cover Alaska as well as CONUS.



Established a parallel 2.5 km CONUS version. Expect implementation in Q4 of FY10. Also expect to add an RTMA for Guam.


High Resolution Window Runs

FY10 plans include upgrading the WRF code version and adding a run to cover Guam (which would use GFS initial and boundary conditions).



The next large implementation will be transitioning the WRF-NMM to the NMM-B and embedding this model within the National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) framework sometime in FY2011. This transition allows the establishment of 4 km nests over the CONUS, a 6 km nest over Alaska, and possibly nests for Puerto Rico and Hawaii. An internal EMC parallel has been started.



Beginning plans to provide BUFR sounding output from members. Also expect to replace the remaining Eta members with NEMS members in the future.


2d. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (Vera Gerald)

The Hurricane Wave model is planned to be upgraded March 30, 2010 (see above).



3a. MDL (Kathy Gilbert)

A major upgrade to GFSMOS is planned for February 9. See:


MDL is exploring extending GMOS out to 10 day projections.


3b. NCEP Centers and NWS Regions


TPC: Expressed interest in seeing separate sensitivity experiments for the changes to the GFS model shallow and deep convection schemes, independent from the changes in resolution.


Also, will work with Yuejian to acquire retrospective hurricane tracks from the parallel GEFS.


HPC: International desk forecasters have noticed a dry bias in the Caribbean lately. EMC confirmed that this is a known bias.


SR: Providing weather support for the Haitian earthquake relief effort.


4. The next Synergy Meeting will be held at 2:30 pm EDT on Monday, February 22, 2010 in room 209, with remote teleconferencing capability.