EMC/HPC/MPC/NCO/CPC synergy meeting highlights 01/28/02

This meeting was led by Peter Manousos and followed a generic agenda denoted by the subtitles below. Attendees included Hua-Lu Pan, Steve Tracton, Jun Du, Pete Caplan, Jim Hoke, Dave Reynolds, James Partain, Steve Lord, Keith Brill, Larry Borroughs, Kevin McCarthy, Steve Jascourt, and Bill Bua.


No representative from NCO was available at this time to provide input on IBM SP status.

2. Notes from EMC

a. Global Modeling Group: Hua-Lu reported testing on the T254 resolution (T170 after 84 hrs., T62 after 180 hrs.) MRF continues and is “ok”. The new paradigm for the Global Forecast System will be implemented in 3 phases.

          PHASE 1 -    4x/day AVN output out to 16 days possibly ready by end of Feb (pending details to be

                                worked out with NCO). MRF files will be filled with AVN output to still hold data.

          PHASE 2 -    After TPC evaluates retrospective runs of T254 from Sept 2001 (2 runs/day), issue a preliminary TPB for T254 implementation (as above) in April/May 2002. Output will continue on the 1o grid, with future plans for hourly output on a ½o grid for the first 24 or 36 hours of the forecast.

          PHASE 3 -    Implement generation of 10 member ensemble runs per each cycle (4x/day) in August 2002.

b. Mesoscale Modeling Group: No representative from the Mesoscale Modeling Group was available at this time to provide input on the mesoscale modeling effort.

c.Global Ensembles: No representative from the Global Ensemble group was available at this time to provide input on the global ensemble modeling effort.

d. Short Range Ensembles: The physics attributes of the new Eta 12 (including the new precipitation microphysics scheme) are now being run (since 09 UTC 21 Jan 02) in the Eta component of the SREF system (but at 48km horizontal resolution). The RSM component is still the previous version of the operational AVN prior to the changes implemented in the AVN in May 2001. There are still plans for including 5 SREF members each from the NSSL version of the Eta using the Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization and from the ARPS model as soon as these can be made ready. Longer range plans include adding more models, perhaps including COAMPS and AFWA MM5.

e. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB) - The COFS model is slated to go live in the third quarter of FY 2002. See previous meeting notes for details.


3. Input to EMC from Operational Centers - MPC had a question on why the circulation center in the low level wind field is sometimes displaced from the low center. Group was able to illustrate that the circulations in the wind field may be displaced from minimum in surface pressure field when the isallobaric component is large. The displacement therefore is dynamically consistent and not a result of post processing.


Jim Hoke inquired on the possibility of posting images of input grids to models on the NCO recently developed model web site. Specifically, post those input grids about which NCEP receives questions most frequently about from the public (like snow cover or soil moisture). Steve Lord suggested HPC provide a text description on their web page summarizing the forecast impacts of model changes in imminent model implementations as it compares to operational version (per suggestion to Steve Lord by public).


4. Next Meeting Proposed Monday February 25th at noon in room 209.