EMC/HPC/MPC/NCO/CPC Synergy Meeting Highlights 02/02/04

This meeting was led by Peter Manousos and was attended by John Ward, Larry Burroughs, Hua Lu Pan, Jim Hoke, Joe Sienkiewicz, Pete Caplan, Bill Bua, Keith Brill, Geoff DiMego, Dave Plummer, and Dave Michaud.

1. CCS

John Ward reported that NCO is in the process of a last upgrade to the OS software to fix minor bugs. However no scheduled modifications to the current system are planned before the super computer upgrade. The upgrade will be completed no earlier than June 2004 and the exact configuration of the upgraded system is still in flux (size of the development, production, and backup computer systems). The site of the backup system is likely to be in Fairmont, VA.

2. Notes from EMC

a. Global Modeling Group: Hua-Lu Pan reported that little difference has been noted between the operational GFS and the current GFS parallel run, beyond a consistent improvement in anomaly correlation score of about 1 point. Implementation is expected in February 2004. The next GFS parallel will feature testing use of a hybrid sigma/pressure vertical coordinate system and an upgrade to GDAS from spectral to gridpoint statistical interpolation (i.e. from SSI to GSI). Also, the climate model implementation is slated for late summer with the exact implementation date contingent upon completion of the super computer upgrade.

b. Mesoscale Modeling Group: Geoff DiMego reported the latest scheduled Eta bundle has been delayed slightly. This bundle includes upgrades to the land/surface, shortwave radiation, and data assimilation packages. The land/surface and shortwave radiation modifications have been leading to a cool bias and will be omitted from the next implementation. The data assimilation packages (3DVar changes, addition of GOES 12 radiances, and a bias adjustment to the precip assimilation scheme), however, will be implemented by March 2004. A final Eta bundle is being prepared and will contain the proper modifications to the land/surface and short wave radiation packages before conversion to WRF (the current hi-res and fire weather runs will be replaced with a 6-member ensemble WRF run at 8km resolution). The conversion requires completion of the CCS upgrade.

8 Day Eta Extension - the system has been built with the domain of the grid shrunk to the edges of the CONUS. The system is start at forecast hour 78, to give it 6 hours to adjust to the changed domain. Preliminary tests show that the output closely resembles the GFS by day 4. Test grids will become available in March for evaluation purposes. Running the 8 Day Eta Extension actually results in the operational Eta output becoming available earlier. This also allows for Eta BUFR soundings to go out to 84 hours. CONUS domains are planned to be run at off-time cycles once the CONUS run is implemented.

c. Global Ensemble Prediction System: Hua-Lu reported that the GFS 4x/day global ensemble is being evaluated with an intended implementation date sometime in February 2004. By September, CMC ensemble output will be posted in like fashion to the NCEP global ensemble output.

d. Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Group: Geoff DiMego reported that the SREFx implementation has been postponed until some needed improvements are made. The improvements are related to the breeding method being less stable at higher resolution. Some of the physics members were not performing quite as well as others forcing reassessment of physics diversity distribution. The improved modified system will still feature 15 members, but with a more stable breeding process. If the physics diversity approach fails, the system will remain in the current operational configuration, but at a higher resolution (clustering of like members could then still be noted). The system upgrade is intended for March/April. A late summer bundle will feature 4x/day cycle, with BUFR output soundings appearing in a fall bundle.

e. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB): Larry Burroughs reported that the data assimilation for NWW3 is in parallel and should be implemented in Feb 2004. Global vessel icing and visibility fields is also intended for implementation in Feb 2004. The process to change from the current ocean model to the new North Atlantic Basin ocean model has begun with an anticipated implementation of late summer or early fall 2005. The Global Oceans Model is targeted for implementation in mid 2005 followed by the Pacific Basin model (same resolution as the North Atlantic Basin model) in 2006.

3. Next Meeting Monday, March 1st 2004 at noon in room 209.