NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: April 25, 2011


This meeting was led by Dave Novak (HPC) and attended by Chris Caruso Magee (NCO), Jordan Alpert, (EMC); John Ward (EMC); Geoff Dimego (EMC); Glenn White (EMC), Eric Rogers (EMC); Mary Hart (EMC); Hendrik Tolman (EMC); Steve Silberberg (AWC); Joe Sienkiewicz (OPC); Steve Weiss (SPC), Mike Brennan (TPC); Keith Brill (HPC); Phil Schafer (MDL); Eugene Petrescu (AR); Andy Edman (WR); Ken Pomeroy (WR); Bernard Meisner (SR); Paul Kirkwook (SR); Doug Green (SR): Dave Radell (ER); Jeff Waldstrecher (ER); Brian Meiretzky (ER); and Frank Aikman (NOS)


1. NCO (Chris Caruso Magee)

As anticipated, the current supercomputer processing is approaching capacity at certain times. These computing limits will affect implementations.



Upgrade expected.


Hurricane Models

GFDL expected to be implemented May 17th and the HWRF on May 24th. See associated TINS for details.




NCO plans to test running 5 simultaneous systems on both models to test computing capacity.


Global Forecasting System/Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation System
The GFS/GSI implementation is expected May 10. Several bugs in the GFS model will be addressed, including a low-level temperature warm bias. The NCEP OD decisional briefing is May 3rd. The TIN detailing the upgrades included in the implementation can be found at:



Implementation of consistent bias correction of the Canadian Ensemble members (same as GEFS members) will be implemented May 24.



The major upgrade to the NAM, including changing to the NMMB model core and introduction of high-resolution nests, is tentatively scheduled for July 12th. The TIN detailing the upgrades included in the implementation can be found at:



Model Analysis and Guidance (MAG) web site

Changes to the NCEP Model Analysis and Guidance (MAG) web site ( are scheduled to be implemented on 27 Jun 2011. The NCEP MAG web site went operational on 15 Mar 2011. The changes scheduled to be implemented on 27 Jun were largely driven by user experience, feedback, and suggestions.


For the latest schedule updates see:



2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (John Ward)


Global Forecasting System/Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation System
The May 10th  GFS/GSI implementation is expected to address several bug fixes, including a fix to the low-level temperature warm bias introduced in the August 2010 implementation.


Hybrid Data Assimilation

Several partners have been working with EMC to develop a hybrid 3D-Var/Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation approach. Implementation is tentatively expected in Q2FY12.


2b. Global Ensemble Prediction System

A resolution increase is planned for Q4FY11.


2c. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB)(Geoff Dimego)


A TIN will soon be issued for the new mesoscale model (the NMM-B) next month. This will transition the WRF-NMM to the NMM-B, which will be a non-hydrostatic multiscale (from global to mesoscales) on the Arakawa B (changed from E) grid.  It will also be reconfigured to the National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) framework. Note that the model slot called the “NAM” regardless of the model core or modeling framework.


There will also be 4-km nests over the CONUS, a 6-km nest over Alaska, and 3-km nests for Puerto Rico and Hawaii. These nests are close to the current resolution of the NAM-DNG grids, which are currently at 5-km resolution. These nested products, however, will become available to the field at 2.5-km resolution, which is what most WFOs are using.


Reinstitution of Fire Weather Runs:

Logistics are being worked out for the reinstitution of fire weather runs over selected CONUS (1.33-km resolution) and AK (1.5-km resolution) domains. These domains would be the size of the state of PA or the southern part of CA.  They will be 36-hour forecast runs with hourly forecast output. Distribution to incident meteorologists (IMETS) will be as before, to the regions through FxNET. They’ll also be available through ftp. A site to ftp the data is available now if anyone is interested in early evaluation.



A SREF Upgrade is planned for Q1FY11. This upgrade will replace Eta members with WRF and increase resolution. See previous notes for details.


Testing of a hybrid Global Ensemble Transform / Breeding perturbation approach is also ongoing.


Rapid Refresh

A major change from the RUC to the WRF-based Rapid Refresh model is planned for late summer.

Planned RTMA and SREF changes discussed in previous synergy meetings will not be implemented until 4th quarter 2011.



2d. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (Hendrik Tolman)

Providing support for the Japan Nuclear Crisis, including expansion into ocean dispersion modeling support.


Global Hycomb

Parallel of the global hycomb to begin shortly. This is an ongoing collaboration with NAVY on the global Hycomb.


Multi-grid Global Wave and Hurricane Wave Models

A June 14th implementation will make changes to the spectral output grid products. For more details see the TIN:



Q3 SST of the RTG update planned to include AMSR-E SST data.



An implementation of the RTOFS Global (HYCOM based) is expected in FY11Q4. The 1/12th degree data is now available on NOMADS and in netCDF format. 


The Marine Branch has committed to support local coastal modeling efforts using Swan and WW3.





The Regional Ocean Modeling System implementations in Chesapeake, Delaware, and Tampa Bays were successful.


Implementations for the Gulf and Great Lakes have been delayed




4a. MDL (Phil Shafer)


Extra-tropical storm surge West Coast

OPC Q2 milestone – RFCs submitted in Feb but awaiting NCO resources to secure implementation schedule - hope to implement ASAP


Gridded LAMP - currently running in parallel job stream – switch to operational job stream planned for mid-June – TOC/SBN upgrades needed to accommodate these grids – SBN transmission planned for late Sept


2.5km gridded MOS CONUS

RFCs submitted - NCO is working on them – hoping for late Q3 or early Q4 implementation – TOC limitations will likely delay SBN transmission until at least September



RFCs submitted – NCO currently working with MDL to resolve some issues


Working with SPC, HPC, and AWC to include the HRMOS QPF and the LAMP/MOS convective products in the test bed experiments this year



4b. NCEP Centers and NWS Regions


SPC  and HPC thanked NCO and EMC for support for the 2011 Spring Experiment.


OPC thanked EMC for the EMSL pressure fields. Clarified that the maximum wind speed from the GFS is calculated at the model time step, and reported hourly.


Southern Region: Presented concept of data management of non-SBN delivered data at the local WFO. Discussion centered on the NWS communications infrastructure, LDM, and NOMADS use at the WFO level.


5. The next Synergy Meeting will be held at 2:30 pm EDT on Monday, May 23, 2011 in room 209, with remote teleconferencing capability.