NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: May 7, 2012

This meeting was led by  LT Stephen Barry (HPC) and attended by Keith Brill and Dave Novak (HPC); Bill Bua (UCAR/COMET); Chris Caruso-Magee (NCO); Jordan Albert, Eric Rogers, Jordan Alpert, Hendrik Tolman, and Mary Hart (EMC); Scott Scallion and Mark Antolik (MDL); Richard Pasch (NHC), Steve Silberberg (AWC); Andy Dean (SPC); Joe Sienkiewicz (OPC); Jeff Waldstreicher (ER); Andy Edman (WR), Bernard Meisner (SR); John Kelly and Frank Aikman (NOS)


1. NOTES FROM NCO (Chris Caruso-Magee)


The Rapid Refresh (RAP) was successfully implemented on 01 May 2012.

The multiscale WaveWatch 3 will be implemented on 08 May 2012.  The upgrade to this model was evaluated and approved for implementation with OPC and NHC participating.

The Ensemble Kernel Density MOS (EKDMOS) started its parallel evaluation period on 27 March 2012.  This implementation is undergoing a six-week parallel to allow more time for the affected users to evaluate the product.  This new MOS system is scheduled to be implemented in late May 2012.

The Global Forecast System (GFS) implementation that includes the Hybrid Ensemble Kalman Filter/3DVAR data assimilation system is currently in its 30-day parallel evaluation. This implementation is scheduled for 22 May 2012, but this date is currently in jeopardy due to fixes that must be applied and will likely require the restart of the 30-day parallel.  Note that the GFS Hybrid was not delayed and is still on scheduled to be implemented into production on 22 May 2012.

A Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) parallel evaluation will also be scheduled on the backup computer after the GFS evaluation is completed.

The upgrades to the Hurricane WRF (HWRF) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL) hurricane models are currently being tested.  The HWRF upgrade is scheduled to be implemented on 24 May 2012 and the GFDL upgrade is scheduled for 30 May 2012.


The date for the moratorium has not been set yet, but it is expected to begin early in the 1st quarter of FY13. 



1a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (Jordan Albert)

GFS Hybrid

The Hybrid Ensemble Kalman Filter/3DVAR Assimilation is progressing towards 22 May 2012 implementation and should be on schedule. 

2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB) (Eric Rogers)


The Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) has been handed off to NCO.  The 30-day parallel will start after the Hybrid model is implemented. 


The Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) will “sync-up” all versions of the 2DVAR code to the most recent version.  RTMA Alaska resolution will be increased to 3 km with 1.5 km resolution for the Juneau AK region. A special product will be issued for the Northwest River Forecast Center.  This upgrade is currently an unscheduled implementation, but the hope is that it will be implemented prior to the moratorium for the new supercomputer. 


The next NAM and high-resolution window upgrades will not occur until after the completion of the moratorium for the new supercomputer.

2c. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB) (Hendrik Tolman)

Global Wave

The multi-1 grid WaveWatch 3 model physics upgrade will be implemented tomorrow, 08 May 2012.  This was the first implementation completed using the new environmental equivalence implementation structure.  The upgrade was implemented 53 days after RFC submission, which is a significant reduction in time from code handoff to NCO until the upgrade is placed into production.  All implementations will be moving to the environmental equivalence structure in the near future. 

Sea Ice Concentration Analysis

The Sea Ice Concentration Analysis upgrade is currently ongoing.  This is a small implementation that is using the environmental equivalence structure as well.  Implementation of this upgrade is expected to occur in late June. 

The Sea Ice Drift Model will be upgraded in the near future.  The schedule for this implementation and other future implementations depend upon NCO personnel availability during the transition to the new supercomputer. 



The Extratropical Storm and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) for the U.S. East and Gulf coasts is currently undergoing its 30-day parallel evaluation period.  It is scheduled to be implemented into production on 12 June 2012.

The 30-day parallel evaluation for the nest for the Columbia River Estuary Operational Forecast System (CREOFS) is scheduled to start in late May 2012. 

High resolution nested grids for ports and estuaries will be added to NGOFS in FY13 and FY14. 

The discharge forecast for the Bonneville Dam as requested by the Bonneville Power Authority is pending. 



4a. MDL (Scott Scallion and Mark Antolik)

The RFCs have been submitted for the Ensemble Kernel Density MOS (EKDMOS) guidance and the Technical Information Notice (TIN) has been issued.  The parallel evaluation period for this upgrade will end on 10 May 2012.  This upgrade will be implemented into production at the end of May. 

There was an inquiry from ER (Jeff Waldstreicher) on the request for ECMWF MOS data.  Questions from the field on this matter should be forwarded to MDL.  Currently there is no permission to send anything further than the current permission level.  The request for additional permission must be cleared through General Counsel before the permission level can be changed. 

It was announced that Bob Glahn of MDL plans to retire at the end of June 2012.


4b. NCEP Centers and NWS Regions

Aviation Weather Center (AWC, Steve Silberberg): glad that RAP has been implemented.

Ocean Prediction Center (OPC, Joseph Sienkowitz): glad that the upgrade to the Global Wave model will soon be implemented. 

National Hurricane Center (NHC, Richard Pasch): Currently working on the evaluation of the Hybrid GFS.  They would have liked a longer evaluation period for the upgrade to Global Wave model to allow for evaluation during late fall/early winter season. 

Storm Prediction Center (SPC, Andy Dean): awaiting implementation of the upgraded SREF.

Hydrological Prediction Center (HPC, Dave Novak): Currently looking at the GFS Hybrid, overall the review is positive.  The mass fields are improved, while precipitation is neutral. 

Southern Region (Bernard Meisner): Working on changes from RUC to RAP.  They are glad to have updated GFS MOS wind guidance. 


5. The next Synergy Meeting will be held at 2:30 pm EDT on Monday, June 4, 2012 in room 209, with remote teleconferencing capability.