NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: June 28, 2010


This meeting was led by David Novak (HPC) and attended by Chris Caruso Magee (NCO); Geoff Dimego (EMC); Eric Rogers (EMC); John Ward (EMC); Chad Cary (EMC); Vera Gerald (EMC); Jamese Sims (EMC); Mary Hart (EMC); Bill Bua (UCAR/COMET); Stephen Jascourt (UCAR/COMET); Kathy Gilbert (MDL); Phil Shafer (MDL); Steve Silberberg (AWC); Israel Jirak (SPC); Keith Brill (HPC); Richard Pasch (TPC); Bill Ward (PR); Dave Radell (ER); and Brian Miretzky (ER)


1. NCO (Chris Caruso Magee)


Implementations scheduled for July 6

-Change in preemption rules for the high-resolution window (HRW) runs. The HRW runs will only be preempted if there are 3 or more tropical storms. Currently, the ARW is preempted if there's one tropical storm, and both ARW and NMM are preemmpted if there are 2 or more storms. The change should allow for more HRW cycles during the hurricane season.


Implementations scheduled for July 13

-GFDL changes involve modifying the way the model removes the global vortex in its initialization procedure.


-GEFS Climatological Calibrated Precip Analysis (CCPA). The CCPA uses a regression method to generate precip analysis from 30 yr CPC unified analysis and 8 yr NCEP 4 km Stage IV (mosaicked QPE from RFCs) data.


-Genesis Tracking: Improvements to cyclone tracking code to retain identification of systems through lifecycle for both tropical and extratropical cyclones. Also providing tropical cyclone phase diagram parameters.


Implementations scheduled for July 27

-GFS (


Implementations scheduled for August 3

-Changes to the GFS MOS BUFR to properly pack opaque sky cover categorical guidance.


Implementations scheduled for September 14

-2.5 km RTMA CONUS. This RTMA will be run separate from the 5 km RTMA.

-RTMA Hawaii


Implementations scheduled for September 21

-Hurricane Wave Model. A parallel is expected to be available in August.


-Great Lakes Wave Model. A parallel is expected to be available in August.


Implementations scheduled for late September

-Air Quality products for Alaska and Hawaii are expected to be moved from parallel into production.
-TIGGE: Sunshine duration will be added and GEFS bug fixes will be made.


For the latest schedule updates see:




2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (John Ward)



Major GFS changes are expected to be implemented July 27. Feedback from centers has been positive to date. The next set of major changes is tentatively planned for Fall 2011.



Updates to the datatypes are expected to be made in January 2011.



Plans are continuing to add the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) ensemble to NAEFS. FNMOC is making changes to be compatible with NAEFS. Analysis of the impact on bandwidth will also need to be completed. The addition is tentatively planed for December 14, 2010.


Pacific Region Guidance

Codes have been submitted to NCO for the downscaled numerical guidance (DNG) from the native GFS data for Guam and Hawaii. The DNG will help support RTMA for Guam. Implementation is expected in late September. A 75-day notice will be required for the Guam DNG to be distributed over the SBN, so SBN dissemination may lag implementation.


Climate Forecast System v2.0

Planning and testing for a major upgrade to the Climate Forecast System (CFS 2.0) is ongoing. Initial plans are for a late December implementation.


2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB) (Geoff Dimego)



A upgrade is being planned for FY11Q3 which replaces the remaining Eta and RSM members with NEMS-NMM-B members. This upgrade would also increase resolution to ~22-25 km, add a BUFR output, and may transition to an ensemble perturbation approach.  The WRF Development Testbed Center (DTC) is  helping evaluate different perturbation possibilities. The Eta and RSM models will be discontinued, pending all dependencies on Eta and RSM models can be removed.



Established a separate 2.5 km CONUS version that will run at the same time as the current 5 km RTMA. The 2.5 km CONUS RTMA will feature improvements to the analysis system, including the use of First Guess at Appropriate Time (FGAT). FGAT allows for better assimilation of off-hour observations. This implementation will also update the QC station lists submitted by the regions.  Implementation is targeted for Q4 of FY10.



The next large implementation will be transitioning the WRF-NMM to the NMM-B and embedding this model within the National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) framework sometime in FY2011. This transition allows the establishment of 4 km nests over the CONUS, a 6 km nest over Alaska, and 3 km nests for Puerto Rico and Hawaii, while the parent domain remains at 12 km. An internal EMC parallel has been running.


Given the current AWIPS and SBN moratoriums, MMB is considering distributing the nests within the NAM DNG slots. Will collaborate with the Regions/HQ on distribution approaches.


High Resolution Window Runs

Plans include upgrading the WRF code version (to v3.2) and adding a 2x daily run to cover Guam (which would use GFS initial and boundary conditions). The newer WRF versions for both NMM and ARW use a more conservative advection scheme which has the effect of reducing QPF bias. The run over Guam would replace the current RSM runs over Guam and Hawaii, and provide the first guess for the Guam RTMA. No implementation dates have been scheduled.


Reinstatement of the Fire Weather nests are planed for FY11Q2. The nests are run at ~1.3 km over domains of ~ 700 x 700 km.


Exploring the hybrid ensemble approach of Jun (2004) ( applied to the high-res window runs. This involves adding the forecast perturbations from the 21 SREF members to the Hi-res window NMM and ARW forecasts.


Rapid Refresh

MMB is working with GSD on implementation details of the Rapid Refresh. The Rapid Refresh will replace the RUC. Implementation is tentatively planned for summer of 2011.


Very Short Range Ensemble Forecast (VSREF)

MMB is working on VSREF ( It is a time-lagged, weighted ensemble of NAM and RUC forecasts, which is updated hourly. Initial efforts have focused on supporting aviation.



2c. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (Vera Gerald)

Preparing for Hurricane and Great Lakes Wave Model implementations.


Global Hycom is running in an EMC parallel.



3a. MDL (Kathy Gilbert)

-Gridded LAMP ceiling and visibility products are expected to be implemented in September


-2.5 km Gridded MOS (GMOS) grids for CONUS are currently on MDL server. Still need to transitioned to operational server.


-The advertised implementation of the GFS-based gridded MOS guidance over Hawaii has been delayed from September 2010 to November 2010.  An amended TIN will be issued with the new date.



3b. NCEP Centers and NWS Regions


EMC – Testing new web page. Check it out at:

Please review the new layout, content, and feel free to provide any constructive feedback that might improve this effort.  The Webmaster will be collecting feedback during this trial period.  The intent is to transition to the new pages on August 26, 2010. 


AWC – Seeing improvements in the parallel GFS.


HPC –Seeing improvements in the parallel GFS. Also had opportunity to view the 4 km EMC parallel NMMB (new NAM), and found it be a clear improvement over the operational NAM. Expressed strong support for moving towards a storm scale (< 4 km grid spacing) ensemble, based on experiences at the Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment.


PR – Exploring missing GFS data in AWIPS. Will talk to NCF.


4. The next Synergy Meeting will be held at 2:30 pm EDT on Monday, July 26, 2010 in room 209, with remote teleconferencing capability.