NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: June 29, 2009


This meeting was led by David Novak (HPC) and attended by Dan Starosta (NCO), Joe Carr (NCO); Rebecca Cosgrove (NCO); Eric Rogers (EMC); Yuejian Zhu (EMC); Mary Hart (EMC); Vera Gerald (EMC); Bill Bua (UCAR/COMET); Stephen Jascourt (UCAR/COMET);Richard Pasch (TPC); Steve Silberberg (AWC); RussSchneider (SPC); Steve Weiss (SPC); David Bright (SPC); Joe Sienkiewicz (OPC);Jim Hoke (HPC); Keith Brill (HPC); Kathy Gilbert (MDL); Andy Edman (WR); David Myrick (WR); Carven Scott (AR); and Bernard Meisner (Southern Region).


1. NCO


Dan Starosta reported that Stratus was accepted June 29th. NCO is currently moving dataflow, model code, etc. over to Stratus in the aim of running the production suite on Stratus the week of July 6th. Stratus is expected to be fully operational in early to mid August.


Implementations are planned to occur in the following order:

1)     Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system

2)     Global Ensemble Forecast System

3)     Real-Time Ocean Forecast System

4)     Hurricane WRF

A 30 day NCO parallel test will occur in association with the SREF implementation. Although no significant changes have been made since the last parallel test in late 2008, SREF will be running on a new operational system and there was an NDAS bug fix. A new TIN is expected to be distributed. The previous TIN is at:


TPC asked if the genesis mode (a high-resolution limited area model run over a disturbance of interest) would be a part of the HWRF implementation, as well as whether running 5 systems simultaneously would be possible with the new computer. EMC confirmed that the genesis mode is part of the implementation and that 5 systems could be run simultaneously with the new computer. TPC also expressed interest in moving up the priority of the HWRF implementation such that it could be operational for part of the 2009 hurricane season. TPC will pursue this request with EMC/NCO.


AWC asked if TAMDAR data was being used by GDAS/NDAS. The data stream had been turned off in late 2008. As of June 29, 2009 the TAMDAR contract was renewed, and NCO is looking into resuming the decoding of the data.





2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB)

No report.


2b. Global Ensemble Prediction System


Yuejian Zhu is testing a parallel GEFS run which increases member resolution from T126 to T190, adds a stochastic perturbation scheme, and uses 8th order horizontal diffusion for all resolutions. Tests show improved forecast skill and reliability. Additionally, several new variables will be included in the “pgrba” files, including 10, 50, and 100 mb level data, surface and top of atmosphere flux data, and soil data, CIN and et al. This GEFS upgrade is second in the queue when the computer moratorium is lifted (see above section 1).


Meanwhile, implementation of additional NAEFS variables is planned for early 2010. This implementation would include 9 additional near-surface downscaled and bias-corrected variables (srf pressure, T2m, U10m and V10m, T2mmax, T2mmin, Wind direction and Wind speed, working on T2m dew point temperature) for CONUS and Alaska.


Yuejian also informed the group that EMC is working with NCO to expand the ECMWF deterministic, ECMWF wave, and ECMWF ensemble data available to NCEP Centers, based on previously submitted requirements. The data would represent an expansion of the number of elements and would be at 1 degree resolution. The data is sent in grib1 format. NCO will work with the Centers to determine optimal data formats. There is a potential time delay, and so a trade-off between number of elements and timeliness may need to be made. EMC/NCO will keep the group updated on the status of this project.


2c. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB)


The SREF implementation is the only remaining MMB implementation for FY09. The group is close to setting up a National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) parallel test. The transition from WRF to running WRF within the NEMS framework will be a major focus for FY10.


2d. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch


The next planned implementation is the Atlantic RTOFS. This implementation improves ocean model and assimilation of new satellite data. A recent problem with the ice analysis provided by the SSMI appears to be corrected. This RTOFS upgrade is third in the queue when the computer moratorium is lifted (see above section 1).


Recently there was an instance of erroneous wind values from NDFD which affected the Great Lakes wave model. The error was due to a WFO lake/land mask change. The problem was corrected, but an RFC is being developed to establish a robust safeguard, and will be implemented when the moratorium is lifted.




3a. MDL

Nothing to report.


3b. NCEP Centers and NWS Regions


No issues were brought up by the centers and regions participating in the call.


4. The next Synergy Meeting will be held at 2:30 pm EDT on Monday, August 3, 2009 in room 209, with remote teleconferencing capability.