NCEP Modeling Synergy Meeting Highlights September 26, 2005


This meeting was led by Peter Manousos, attended by Brent Gordon, Geoff Dimego, Rich Bann, Joe Carr, Jim Hoke, Zoltan Toth, Mary Hart, Keith Brill, Steve Lord, Larry Burroughs and attended remotely by SPC’s Steve Weiss and Dave Bright.


1. CCS

Brent Gordon reported the new disk will be installed on White in the next few weeks.  The high resolution SST parallel, “Genesis tracker”, and reduced domain GFS (for AWC and SPC AFWA backup) have been implemented operationally (Sept 27th) . 



2a. Global Modeling Branch:  Steve Lord reported there are two parallels being tested.. data assimilation changes (addition of NOAA 18 data, better assimilation of AIRS data) and the GSI package (neither are ready for outside assessment).


2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB): Geoff DiMego reported prelim results from the new 3DVar analysis (using GSI) for the NAM is already outperforming the EDAS.  Also the WRF/NMM is still on track to replace the Eta component of the NMM and NAM by July of 2006.  So too will follow Eta members of the SREF (at a later date).  The formal “change” announcement describing this migration will be released in October 2005.   It is still undetermined (pending processing “room” on the CCS) if or not the WRF/NMM will be run at 10 or 12km horizontal resolution.


2c. Global Ensemble Prediction System: Zoltan Toth reported changes to the NCEP/Canadian North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) are still on track including obtaining bias corrected output, instituting weighting per member, and producing experimental output expressed in terms of climatological anomaly.  However, by Feb 2006 only 4 additional members will be added to the Global Ensemble (instead of 10).  The breeding method will still be upgraded.


2d. Short Range Ensemble Prediction System: Steve Lord reported the addition of 6 WRF members significantly improved the performance of the SREF system.  This will be implemented in October 2006.  Additionally this system will be run 4x/day sometime in FY06. 


2e. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB): Beyond what was already mentioned by NCO, Larry Burroughs reported the a parallel version of the Great Lakes wave model will be implemented late this winter using Wave Watch 3 at approximately 5km res.  Additionally the NWW3 ensemble forecasts will be implemented by late winter given sufficient computing resources are available and the NAOFS will be implemented around mid November of this year.


3.     Input to EMC and NCO.

None reported.


4. The next meeting will be held Monday Oct. 31, 2005 at noon in room 209 with remote conference capability.