NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: December 3, 2012
This meeting was led by Wallace Hogsett (HPC) and attended by Dave Novak and Keith Brill (HPC); Bill Bua (UCAR/COMET); Chris Caruso-Magee and Becky Cosgrove (NCO); Eric Rogers, Stephen Barry, DaNa Carlis, Yuejian Zhu, Huiya Chuang, Vera Gerald, and Mary Hart (EMC); Kathy Gilbert (MDL); Richard Pasch (NHC); Israel Jirak, Andy Dean, and Steve Weiss (SPC); Pete Browning (CR); Bernard Meisner (SR); Jeff Waldstreicher and Brian Miretzky (ER); Frank Aikman (NOS); Bonnie Morgan (NESDIS).
1. NOTES FROM NCO (Chris Caruso-Magee and Becky Cosgrove)
NCO is working all-hands on the WCOSS transition. Sea ice and cyclone tracking are running, and SPAs are working on MDL’s EKD MOS and several other jobs. Once the NAM submits announcements, they will go out. WCOSS transition is on schedule; there is no other option.
All COM output on the P6 is transferred daily to Tide and is there for developers, but the full suite won’t be running for a while. Only 5 SPAs are on staff, so only 5 big models will be worked at a time. There is a problem on Tide; IBM is working on a patch to run multiple jobs on a node.
MRF lookalike fields that are still in production need to go away. NCO needs input from any users (AWC?) that may use these legacy products. A PNS will go out on this, as usual.
2. NOTES FROM EMC
2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (DaNa Carlis, Yuejian Zhu, and Huiya Chuang)
The next GFS will most likely be a T1148 semi Lagrangian, although there’s a slim chance it will be a T878 Eulerian. An accompanying GEFS system would be T574 or T382, respectively. A decision will likely be made within a month. Otherwise, the WCOSS transition is taking up most of the branch’s time.
A new membrane SLP is being output for the GFS. For several tropical cyclone cases, the new SLP provides deeper storms and is more representative of the GFS output. The new SLP is not filtered, Shuell was filtered. Impacts in other regions, e.g. topography, are not clear. The membrane SLP is not yet in AWIPS, because there is only one slot. However, EMC is working with NCO on switching to the new computation. The switch will occur next fall at the earliest. GEMPAK files available as EMSL.
EMC will coordinate with MDL on when new GFS output will be available for testing.
2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB) (Eric Rogers)
The WCOSS conversion is a major task for all modeling and verification systems. The NAM has several parallels running across two machines, so the next version will probably be ready in about 18 months. MDL could receive some data, but it will be at least 6 months. The group has been working on RRTM radiation, EnKF in GSI, and tuning of convection to improve the 12km domain bias. Real-time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) could take a while also.
There will be some additional 3km RAP products (to 18hrs) on the SBN, including 3km CONUS and Alaska grids within the week. DRs and things done based on AWIPS to use it, but data is on SBN.
2c. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB) (Vera Gerald)
3. NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE (NOS, Frank Aikman)
WCOSS transition. Two new forecast systems are in the developmental stage: two nested high-resolution models associated with the Northern Gulf of Mexico Operational Forecast System (Nested-NGOFS) and a San Francisco Bay Operational Forecast Systerm (SFBOFS). Both will be implemented after the moratorium.
4. FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL CENTERS/REGIONS
4a. MDL (Kathy Gilbert)
MDL says thanks for the dissemination of gridded MOS on the SBN. These have been gridded on AWIPS2. Phil Shafer has been working on some winter weather products, including probabilistic p-type grids that are being validated by Sterling WFO. These are running as a prototype hosted on the MDL web server.
4b. NCEP Centers and NWS Regions
Hydrological Prediction Center (HPC, Dave Novak): HPC
HPC’s twice-daily medium range PNS was sent out a week ago. Days 4-5 QPF are on the SBN in 6-hourly time steps. These are not viewable in AWIPS, but a change to the CDL file will make it viewable in AWIPS. It works in AWIPSII. We will depend on regions and local offices to make necessary changes. HPC is working on getting rid of all GRIB1 data; all new data will be GRIB2. NESDIS noted that GRIB1 will be gone by November 2013.
Storm Prediction Center (SPC, Israel Jirak): SPC
NMM and NMMB vertical velocity field issues persist in the SREF. NMM members have vertical velocity values of zero, owing to running of the hydrostatic version. NMM-B members have vertical velocity values that are approximately an order of magnitude too small. All affected graphics have been removed from the SPC SREF webpage.
National Hurricane Center (NHC, Richard Pasch):
The GFS was outstanding and better than ECMWF at most forecast intervals in 2012. It was the best individual model. Low pressures from the new GFS SLP appeared reasonable.
Ocean Prediction Center (OPC): No representative.
Aviation Weather Center (AWC): No representative.
Pacific Region (PR): No representative.
Alaska Region (AR): No representative.
Eastern Region (Jeff Waldstreicher): No report.
Western Region (WR): No representative.
Southern Region (Bernard Meisner): No report.
Central Region (Pete Browning): No report.
5. NESDIS (Bonnie Morgan): No report.
6. The next Synergy Meeting will be held at 2:30 pm EDT on Monday, 28 Jan 2013 in NCWCP conference room 2155, with remote teleconferencing capability.