PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 18 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052007
1000 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007        

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN IS NOW NEAR THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER
...  HEAVIEST RAINS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

FLOOD WARNINGS HOWEVER ARE IN EFFECT FOR SCATTERED PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.3
WEST...ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KILOMETERS...NORTH OF CHILDRESS TEXAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH...9 KT...16 KM/H.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/HR...WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS AROUND
1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY EAST OF THE CENTER OF ERIN
AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
KANSAS AND MISSOURI.  WHILE RAINFALL IS STILL HEAVY EAST OF THE
CENTER, THE PATTERN OF RAINFALL NO LONGER EXHIBITS THE HEAVY
RAINBANDS THAT WERE OBSERVED EARLIER SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 1000 PM
CDT SATURDAY

...TEXAS...

HOUSTON METRO AREA

LOCKWOOD (HUNTING BAYOU)        11.02 PAST 3 DAYS
SENS RD                          9.33 PAST 3 DAYS
LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU @8TH ST       8.50 PAST 3 DAYS
SIMS BAYOU @MARTIN LUTHER KING   8.43 PAST 3 DAYS
SOUTH MCGREGOR WA                7.05
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL         5.51
HOUSTON/CLOVER FIELD             3.62

BOERNE 5.6 NE                   10.23 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
SAN ANTONIO/STINSON MUNI ARPT    9.62
FAIR OAKS RANCH 10 NNE           9.62 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
OZONA 22 SE			 9.06 48 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY
FREDERICKSBURG 10.6 SSW	         8.26 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
LACKLAND AFB 2.4 NW              8.30 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
HELOTES 1 ENE                    7.94 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
GREY FOREST 0.2 N                7.73 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
KERRVILLE 5.9 SE                 7.46 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
KELLY AFB/SAN ANTONIO            7.46
HONDO 8.7E			 7.33 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
EL DORADO			 7.19 48 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY
WINTERS				 6.67 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
GILLESPIE                        6.55 SINCE 12 AM FRIDAY
ROBERT LEE			 6.34 24 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY
SAN ANGELO/MATHIS                5.96 
6 WSW BOERNE                     5.84
SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT            5.79
BANDERA 14.3 WNW                 5.70 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
ABILENE MUNI ARPT                5.56
HONDO MUNI ARPT                  5.02
MASON				 3.96 
PALACIOS MUNI ARPT               3.86
HASKELL				 3.38
RANDOLPH AFB/UNIVERSAL CITY      3.27
CHILDRESS			 2.36

OKLAHOMA

HEBRON				 2.13
MCALESTER REGIONAL AIRPORT	 1.86
ALTUS				 1.57


ERIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA SUNDAY...SHIFTING THE MAIN THREAT FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. 

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...35.1 NORTH...AND 100.3
WEST...NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT NEAR 10 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 25 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 400 AM CDT SUNDAY
MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.
 
KOCIN

FORECAST POSITIONS


INITIAL    19/0300Z 35.1N 100.3W
12HR VT    19/1200Z 36.0N  99.0W
24HR VT    20/0000Z 37.2N  97.4W