THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD


STORM SUMMARY MESSAGE



STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 2 FOR SOUTHEAST U.S. HEAVY RAIN AND COASTAL
STORM
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...POTENTIALLY HISTORIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES... 

WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS FROM EASTERN GEORGIA TO NEW
JERSEY.

COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
THE COASTLINE FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN MAINE. COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST.

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 1000 PM EDT...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED JUST
OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE WAS STREAMING
NORTHWARD FROM HURRICANE JOAQUIN AND INTERACTING WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.  NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED RAIN WAS
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM VIRGINIA TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND HEAVY RAIN EXTENDING FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.  IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FRONT WAS
RESULTING IN STRONG AND GUSTY EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.  WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
WERE REPORTED IN SOME AREAS.  PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW IS ALSO
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING AND HIGH SURF ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST
COAST. 

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES FROM 800 AM EDT THU OCT
1 THROUGH 1000 PM EDT FRI OCT 2...

...DELAWARE...
NASSAU                                4.45                    
LONG NECK                             4.20                    
REHOBOTH BEACH                        3.75                    
DAGSBORO 7 ENE                        3.73                    
OCEAN VIEW 1 NW                       3.50                    
SELBYVILLE 7 E                        2.91                    
LEWES 2 SSW                           2.75                    
DOVER AFB                             2.61                    
SEAFORD 1 S                           2.55                    
DELMAR 4 E                            2.49                    
GEORGETOWN 6 W                        2.48                    
MILFORD 2 W                           2.01                    

...GEORGIA...
ST SIMONS ISLAND                      4.20                    
BAXLEY                                3.43                    
BRUNSWICK/MALCOLM MCKINNON AP         3.38                    
R.H.BANDY STEAM PLANT (TVA)           3.27                    
ABBEVILLE 4S                          2.90                    
ROME 6SW                              2.71                    
TOCCOA                                2.55                    
ALMA/BACON CO. ARPT                   2.51                    
HAWKINSVILLE                          2.50                    
CHARLOTTE                             2.31                    

...MARYLAND...
OCEAN CITY MUNI ARPT                  3.65                    
TRAPPE 4 NE                           2.80                    
SALISBURY RGNL ARPT                   2.48                    
PATUXENT RIVER NAS                    2.11                    

...NORTH CAROLINA...
CALABASH 1 NNW                        5.32                    
WILMINGTON                            4.40                    
SUNSET BEACH 3 NNE                    3.97                    
LAKE WACCAMAW 3 SW                    3.68                    
NEW RIVER MCAS                        3.58                    
BAYBORO 3E                            3.51                    
LONGWOOD 1NW                          3.44                    
WASHINGTON/WARREN FIELD ARPT          3.32                    
NEW BERN/CRAVEN CO. ARPT              3.14                    
SURF CITY 1 E                         3.12                    
WHITEVILLE 7NW                        3.12                    
JACKSONVILLE/ELLIS AIRPORT            3.07                    
FAYETTEVILLE                          3.03                    
CHEROKEE 12N                          2.96                    
CAPE FEAR RIVER AT LOCK 1             2.87                    
ELIZABETHTOWN (LOCK 2)                2.87                    
RALEIGH                               2.11                    

...NEW JERSEY...
MILLVILLE MUNI ARPT                   2.15                    
ATLANTIC CITY INTL ARPT               1.36                    

...PENNSYLVANIA...
PHILADELPHIA INTL ARPT                2.01                    

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
SULLIVANS ISLAND                      3.55                    
FLORENCE                              3.36                    
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH                    3.14                    
GEORGETOWN 5 NNE                      2.90                    
CHARLESTON                            2.63                    
LONGS 1 NW                            2.62                    
EDISTO ISLAND                         2.43                    
CHESNEE 7WSW                          2.13                    

...TENNESSEE...
COLUMBIA                              5.48                    
DEL RIO 4SE (TVA)                     2.57                    
PRAIRIE PLAINS                        2.08                    

...VIRGINIA...
NORFOLK NAS                           3.77                    
LANGLEY AFB/HAMPTON                   3.43                    
OCEANA NAS/SOUCEK                     2.98                    
NEWPORT/WILLIAMSBURG INTL ARPT        2.49                    
RICHMOND                              2.10                    

...SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR EARLIER IN THE
EVENT...

...DELAWARE...
BIG STONE BEACH 18 SE                 47                    
REHOBETH BEACH                        42                    

...MASSACHUSETTS...
NANTUCKET                             47                    
OAK BLUFFS                            45                    

...NEW JERSEY...
SEASIDE HEIGHTS                       56                    
TUCKERTON                             55                    
LITTLE SHEEPSHEAD CR                  54                    
LONG BEACH ISLAND                     47                    
OCEAN CITY                            47                    
PORT NORRIS 19 ESE                    45                    
SOUTH SEASIDE PARK                    45                    

...RHODE ISLAND...
CHARLESTOWN                           46                    


THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE AREA ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FRONT FORECAST
TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. 
ALTHOUGH HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK TAKING THE STORM OUT
TO SEA...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION
ACROSS THE FRONT...WITH HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER A LARGE AREA. 
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS FORECAST TO FALL
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN GEORGIA...AND WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...WHERE WIDESPREAD 5 TO 10 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED.  LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS WITHIN THIS AREA MAY EXCEED
12 INCHES.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND FARTHER WEST FROM WEST VIRGINIA AND KENTUCKY SOUTH
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S.  THESE WINDS MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES IN SOME AREAS DUE TO THE VERY WET SOIL
CONDITIONS.  COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO REMAIN A HAZARD ALONG MUCH
OF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW. 

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT.

KREKELER




Last Updated: 1045 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015