STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 04 FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS HEAVY RAINFALL
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016

...MORE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...

FLOOD WATCHES...FLOOD WARNINGS...AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM EASTERN TEXAS AND
WESTERN LOUISIANA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS.

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 200 AM CST...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW WAS ROTATING
COUNTERCLOCKWISE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WHILE A BROAD STREAM OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUED TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO AND
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHERE A COMPLEX SURFACE FRONTAL STRUCTURE HAD SET
UP.  A SURFACE LOW WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB...29.53
INCHES...WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF BROWNSVILLE...TEXAS IN NORTHERN
MEXICO.  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED THAT HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE IN THE
VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.  ANOTHER
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. 
FARTHER TO THE EAST...HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO EXTEND WELL
INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES FROM 600 AM CST MON MAR
07 THROUGH 200 AM CST WED MAR 09...

...ARKANSAS...
EL DORADO/GOODWIN FIELD               3.26                    
MONTICELLO AIRPORT                    3.02                    
PINE BLUFF/GRIDER FIELD               2.43                    
LITTLE ROCK/ADAMS FIELD               2.20                    
FORT SMITH MUNI ARPT                  2.16                    
TEXARKANA RGNL ARPT                   1.87                    

...LOUISIANA...
BARKSDALE AFB/BOSSIER CITY            8.34                    
MONROE RGNL ARPT                      5.61                    
BOSSIER CITY                          5.42                    
SHREVEPORT RGNL ARPT                  5.07                    

...OKLAHOMA...
ADA 0.3 NNW                           2.38                    
SULPHUR 2.5 WSW                       2.36                    
POTEAU/ROBERT S KERR AIRPORT          1.64                    

...TEXAS...
MINERAL WELLS                         7.03                    
PINELAND 5 E                          6.70                    
MINERAL WELLS 1 SSW                   6.03                    
DECATUR 4 W                           5.81                    
KRUM 6 NW                             5.55                    
BOONEVILLE                            5.36                    
PARADISE                              5.21                    
GARRETT CREEK RANCH                   5.13                    
PONDER 2 S                            4.50                    
RUNAWAY BAY 0.7 SSW                   4.46                    
JOPLIN                                4.41                    
VALLEY VIEW                           4.20                    
SPRINGTOWN 6.0 NW                     4.17                    
SANGER 5.4 NW                         3.64                    
DECATUR                               3.62                    
GRAFORD 8.1 ENE                       3.53                    
WALNUT CREEK                          3.51                    
DENTON MUNI ARPT                      3.49                    
COLLINSVILLE                          3.42                    
AGNES                                 3.15                    
LONGVIEW                              3.10                    
LAKE WAXAHACHIE                       2.98                    
SALT CREEK                            2.85                    
SHERMAN/DENISON                       2.70                    
COTTONDALE                            2.59                    
CELINA 3 NNE                          2.57                    
WHITESBORO 2.8 W                      2.37                    
SUNNYVALE 3 WNW                       2.36                    
TEMPLE 8.1 SE                         2.19                    
DALLAS/REDBIRD ARPT                   1.65                    


THE LARGE AND ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN TEXAS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS AS A WELL-DEFINED FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  A CONTINUOUS FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE LIFTED ALONG THE FRONT AND RESULT IN HEAVY
RAIN TO FALL IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA FROM EASTERN TEXAS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  THE FOCUS OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM ACROSS
EASTERN TEXAS... NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND MUCH OF ARKANSAS WHERE 5 TO 9 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL.  BY
TOMORROW...THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS WILL ONLY SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD CLOSER TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
FROM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF ARKANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ...WITH PROGRESSIVELY
LESSER AMOUNTS EXTENDING FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE PROSPECT OF MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MEANS THAT A PROLONGED THREAT OF FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK. 

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER AT 900 AM CST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT.

KONG