THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD


STORM SUMMARY MESSAGE



STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 06 FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY HEAVY RAINFALL
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM CST WED MAR 09 2016

...HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...

FLOOD WATCHES...FLOOD WARNINGS...AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 200 PM CST...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW WAS ROTATING
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WHILE A BROAD STREAM OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR CONTINUED TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  A COMPLEX SURFACE FRONTAL
STRUCTURE HAS SET UP ACROSS TEXAS WHICH WAS ALSO ACTING AS AN
ANCHOR FOR IGNITING CONVECTION. A SURFACE LOW WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES...WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF
CORPUS CHRISTI...TEXAS.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...IN ADDITION TO MOVING OFF THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS COAST.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
THAT HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE NORTHWARD
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS. TO THE WEST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WAS REPORTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. 

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES FROM 600 AM CST MON MAR
07 THROUGH 200 PM CST WED MAR 09...

...ARKANSAS...
SEARCY MUNI ARPT                     10.10                    
BRADLEY 7.8 W                         6.36                    
MCNEIL 1.4 E                          5.60                    
HAMBURG 0.8 S                         5.25                    
MARIANNA 3.1 WNW                      5.25                    
MONTICELLO ARPT                       5.04                    
WALDO 4.2 S                           4.82                    
PINE BLUFF/GRIDER FIELD               4.81                    
EL DORADO/GOODWIN FIELD               4.71                    
CROSSETT 0.9 S                        4.63                    
STUTTGART MUNI ARPT                   3.99                    
MONTICELLO AIRPORT                    3.63                    
LITTLE ROCK/ADAMS FIELD               3.55                    
TEXARKANA RGNL ARPT                   3.05                    
FORT SMITH MUNI ARPT                  2.65                    
FAYETTEVILLE/DRAKE FIELD              1.99                    

...LOUISIANA...
BOSSIER CITY 7 SE                    14.40                    
BARKSDALE AFB/BOSSIER CITY           13.74                    
MINDEN 2.0 NE                        12.16                    
SIMSBORO 1 WNW                       11.20                    
JAMESTOWN                            10.70                    
BIENVILLE 0.5 S                       9.62                    
MONROE RGNL ARPT                      9.51                    
HOMER 1.2 N                           9.42                    
SWARTZ                                8.89                    
MONROE 2.4 WNW                        8.46                    
SHREVEPORT 3.2 ESE                    8.45                    
SHREVEPORT RGNL ARPT                  8.10                    
BARKSDALE AFB                         5.00                    
LAKE PROVIDENCE                       4.80                    

...MISSISSIPPI...
GREENVILLE MUNI ARPT                  2.95                    

...OKLAHOMA...
ADA 0.3 NNW                           2.38                    
SULPHUR 2.5 WSW                       2.36                    
POTEAU/ROBERT S KERR AIRPORT          2.17                    

...TENNESSEE...
COLLIERVILLE 1.2 E                    5.00                    
MEMPHIS INTL ARPT                     2.52                    

...TEXAS...
LONGVIEW                              8.60                    
NESBITT 4 NW                          7.87                    
PARADISE 6.6 SW                       7.35                    
MINERAL WELLS                         7.03                    
PINELAND 5 E                          6.70                    
MARSHALL 9.7 SE                       6.43                    
MURCHINSON 4 S                        6.34                    
BIG SANDY                             6.24                    
MINERAL WELLS 1 SSW                   6.03                    
BEN WHEELER 3.9 ESE                   6.00                    
DECATUR 4 W                           5.81                    
KRUM 2 SW                             5.66                    
BOONEVILLE                            5.36                    
GARRETT CREEK RANCH                   5.13                    
JOPLIN                                4.41                    
DALLAS 7.2 SW                         2.77                    


THE LARGE AND ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN TEXAS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS AS A WELL-DEFINED FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY FROM
ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  A
CONTINUOUS FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BE LIFTED ALONG THE FRONT AND RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN TO
FALL IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA FROM EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE FOCUS OF HEAVY
RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND EASTERN
ARKANSAS WHERE 5 TO 9 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...OF
RAIN COULD FALL.  BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD CLOSER TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER....WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNT.  TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF
ARKANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  LESSER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED
FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND.
BECAUSE MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A PROLONGED THREAT
OF FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING WILL LAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
FOR THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. 

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER AT 900 PM CST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT.

FANNING




Last Updated: 332 PM EST WED MAR 09 2016