Tropical Discussion - International Desks
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025

Forecast Bulletin 10 February 2025 AT 2000 UTC

In general, during the first half of the workweek, the tropical
region is expected to observe generally fair weather, but brief
shower activity across the Caribbean and along the windward side
of Central America are also expected, albeit causing modest
rainfall accumulations. The northern, or tropical section, of
South America is expected to have areas with significant daily
rainfall, however. Although most of northern South America is
expected to observe diurnal convection due to the combination of
the available moisture and diurnal heating, portions of western
Ecuador and southwestern Colombia have an enhanced chance of
showers and thunderstorms, as relatively deep moisture in the low
levels is expected to move in and combine divergence aloft. In
terms of rainfall amounts over Ecuador and Colombia, today into
tonight is expected to be the day with the highest rainfall
accumulations compared to Tuesday and Wednesday, but it is worth
considering that even if the highest amounts of rain are expected
today, the persistent shower and thunderstorm activity each day
may lead to an increase in impact over the area with each passing
day.

In the mid and upper levels, there are vertically stacked ridge of
high pressure, which encompass the Caribbean region into the
western Tropical Atlantic. This is keeping the area under a fairly
stable atmosphere, which may limit convection to be shallow and
across isolated areas. There is also dry air in the mid levels
moving into the Caribbean region, with low 700-500mb average RH
values expected. There will be a few patches of moisture passing
through, mainly associated with low level shortwave troughs moving
in the Caribbean. Across tropical South America the mid and upper
levels will provide some divergence across western Colombia and
Ecuador, while other areas will have very light winds aloft and
some diffluence, though not enough to provide continuous and
prolonged support for deep convection.

At the surface, there is also a strong high pressure that is
dominating the tropical region, in particular the Caribbean and
the Tropical Atlantic. The low level winds, down to the surface,
are expected to be relatively strong over the next few days across
the Caribbean, Tropical Atlantic and into the Gulf. The latest
model guidance suggests 850mb winds surpassing 25 KT over much of
the Tropical region, especially over the waters. These strong
winds will also contribute to the brief nature of the shower
activity, as any shower that may develop will move quickly over
any one area.

In terms of rainfall, the Caribbean region will have minimal to
modest amounts of rain over the next few days, which is not
uncommon for the time of year. Mexico will also be vary dry, with
essentially fair weather over the country each day through
midweek. As mentioned above, the area with the best chance of
significant rainfall is the tropical region of South America. The
Guianas and Amapa of Brasil are expected to observe some showers
and rainfall as low level moisture moves in with the trade winds
and the proximity to the ITCZ. Some dry air will move in over
Venezuela into northeastern Colombia with the nocturnal LLJ
bringing dry air each day.

Focusing on western Ecuador and Colombia, the persistent influx of
low level moisture from the pacific and the diffluence and
divergence aloft will provide a good environment of shower and
thunderstorm development over the area. The rainfall forecast for
today suggests that a rainfall maxima will be in the order of
40-80mm with showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be
heavy at times. Tuesday into Wednesday, the rainfall maxima is
forecast to be around 25-50mm and then 30-60mm foo Wednesday into
early Thursday.



Ledesma...(WPC)
Alamo...(WPC