Tropical Discussion - International Desks NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 314 PM EST Mon Mar 03 2025 Forecast Bulletin 3 March 2025 at 2015 UTC: In general, through midweek, the tropical region will remain with rainfall activity not too far from climatology. This means that most of the Caribbean will have brief showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two over Hispaniola, but nothing particularly hazardous. Mexico will remain mostly dry, while portions of Central America as well as the Bahamas may observe isolated to scattered showers, but once again, nothing particularly out of the ordinary for the time of year in terms of rainfall. Tropical South America will in fact observe daily showers and thunderstorms, however. There is a cold front that is extending from the Atlantic into the southern Bahamas, with a stationary portion extending south into Cuba by tonight. The frontal boundary will continue moving east, but will become stationary from the tropical central Atlantic into the Turks and Caicos by Tuesday night. Also by that time, a cold front will move south from the south central US and Mexico into the northwestern Gulf. By Wednesday, the western portion of the Stationary front in the Atlantic will dissipate, leaving a trough north of Puerto Rico, but the cold front over the Gulf will continue to move south southeast, reaching Veracruz and Yucatan, continuing northeast, just west of Cuba and northwest of the Bahamas. The available moisture will be higher than normal just ahead of these frontal boundaries, but below normal behind them, especially over the cold front moving through the Gulf and into the Yucatan by Wednesday night. In the upper levels, a trough will pas through the Bahamas and the Caribbean islands overnight into Tuesday, its axis forecast to be over eastern Hispaniola by Tuesday night, then northeast of the Leeward Islands by Wednesday night. Behind that Upper trough, a ridge in the upper levels will encompass the Caribbean region into Mexico, but a shortwave trough will move into the Caribbean by Wednesday. The mid levels will behave similarly, with a mid-level trough moving through the Bahamas and through the Greater Antilles through the first half of the workweek. A mid-level ridge will follow from Mexico into the Caribbean on Tuesday, but a weak shortwave trough will also move in to the north-central Caribbean by Wednesday night. This general pattern will allow brief isolated to scattered shower activity, with locally induced showers and isolated thunderstorms over Hispaniola over the next few days, though the daily max rainfall is expected to remain under 35mm, with most areas observing under 15mm. That said, the mid and upper troughs that are expected to be just north to northeast of the Leewards on Wednesday night will combine with the slightly higher than normal moisture, to possible cause showers and thunderstorms near the Leewards on Wednesday. Persistent shower and thunderstorm development is expected over northern South America, in particular over the western Coast of Ecuador and Colombia. This is mainly due to the above normal available moisture combining with the diurnal heating and local effects. That said, the most significant showers and thunderstorms are expected over western Ecuador and Colombia, as the moisture combines with the local effects plus a diffluent upper level pattern. Western Colombia and Ecuador are forecast increasing amounts of rain each day into mid week, from a maxima up to 45mm into Tuesday morning, to a maxima of 60mm on Wednesday into Thursday. The rest of northern South America will have isolated areas of heavy precipitation, but for the most part, the daily maxima will range between 15 and 45mm. For a graphical representation and details of the areas with forecast rainfall: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/international/crb_day1-3.shtml Alamo...(WPC)