Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 100 PM EST Sun Dec 02 2018 Valid 12Z Thu Dec 06 2018 - 12Z Mon Dec 10 2018 ...Guidance Assessment... The 12 UTC GFS/00 UTC ECMWF and to a lesser extent the 00 UTC Canadian are decently clustered with ensemble means days Thu/Fri and a composite solution seems reasonable, excluding outlier 00/12 UTC UKMET runs. Deterministic model run-run consistency and compatabilty with ensemble means wanes days 6-8, so mainly used a latest GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble blend, with an emphasis on ECMWF ensembles for max WPC continuity. ...Pattern Overview and Weather Highlights/Hazards... The WPC Alaskan medium range period begins with an amplified upper ridge extending from the southeast panhandle to the Interior/North Slope and that feature may prove difficult to dislodge into at least next weekend. An upstream closed upper level low and main surface low will weaken/shift over the southeast Bering Sea into Thursday. Southerly moist lead fetch will meanwhile fuel widespread precipitation into the southern Alaskan tier in a protracted wet pattern. This will be invigorated as new deep systems genesis underneath lifts into the Gulf of Alaska, with a lead deepened low expected to reach Kodiac Island and the Alaskan Peninsula by Friday before gradually weakening next weekend. This will support stormy conditions/heavy precipitation for maritime interests and inland into the southwest/southern/southeastern Alaskan tiers, but the supporting energies tend to focus more to the south of the state later next weekend into next week. There is also a decent signal in guidance to bring a closed upper low/deep surface system eastward toward the Aleutians and southern Bering Sea in about a week that has the potential to be another significant storm. Schichtel WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can be found at: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html