Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
501 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020
Valid 12Z Wed Dec 02 2020 - 12Z Sun Dec 06 2020
...Storm systems are expected to lie over and south of Alaska
during the next week...
A strong blocking ridge across Saskatchewan will force the flow
across eastern and central Alaska to be southerly through the
period, with low pressure areas impacting the state late Tuesday
(where guidance is agreeable) and perhaps Thursday/Friday. A
significant storm is expected to move well to the southwest of the
state late next week into the weekend. This trio of cyclones is
expected to keep seas across the northeast Pacific quite unsettled
through the period with wet and windy conditions predominately for
south-central and southeast sections of the state. The pressures,
500 hPa heights, and wind grids were deterministic based (12z
Canadian, 12z UKMET, 12z GFS, and 12z ECMWF) from late Tuesday
through Wednesday before increasing weights of the 12z NAEFS mean
and 00z ECMWF ensemble mean were used thereafter. The remainder
of the grids made greater use of the ensemble means. In the
pressure pattern, this kept rather good continuity.
Much of the North Slope as well as the eastern two-thirds of the
mainland should see above to well above normal temperatures
through the period within the southerly flow regime with highest
anomalies likely to be for lows (20F or more above normal in some
cases). The Panhandle will tend to be above normal as well, with
the potential for a foot of liquid equivalent precipitation within
a persistent onshore flow regime. Expect the best potential for
below normal temperatures over the west/southwest part of the
mainland and through the Peninsula/Aleutians, in an area of
persistent mid-level troughing into mid-week. It is uncertain
whether or not western AK will be in an area of ridging or
troughing late week into next weekend, though there was a slight
lean in the ensemble mean for at least some troughing, which if
verified would favor somewhat below average temperatures.
Roth
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html