Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 707 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Valid 12Z Fri Jun 25 2021 - 12Z Tue Jun 29 2021 ...Rainy conditions forecast for Aleutians, Alaskan Peninsula, Kenai Peninsula, and southeast AK/panhandle later this week... ...Guidance/Predictability Evaluation... General model consensus shows a mean upper trough over the Aleutians and southwest portions of the Mainland, with embedded cyclonic circulations through most of the extended. There is the typical spread in some of the specifics regarding timing, strength and placement, but overall is in fair to good agreement. The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was a composite blend of 12Z GFS/ECWMF/CMC/UKMET with light weighting of the 12Z GEFS mean/00Z EC mean. This blend yielded maintained a rather deep cyclone for June to impact the eastern Aleutians to the Alaskan Peninsula late this week before it gradually weakens and meanders gradually west northwest into the southern Bering Sea over the weekend. Strong integrated water vapor transport downstream from this storm supports locally heavy rain from the Kenai peninsula over to southeast AK/panhandle. This pattern is also favorable for portions of the North Slope and surrounding locations to maintain increased cloud cover and chances for rain near a stationary frontal boundary. The potential for rain will linger into the weekend before this boundary weakens. A new cyclone is expected to develop at the base of the Bering Sea trough in the north Pacific, impacting the adjacent Aleutians, up to and including the AK peninsula next Monday, bringing another round of wind and showers to these regions. Also during the course of the extended period, temperatures are forecast to be above seasonal average-- especially across the Panhandle as the ridge over the north Pacific Ocean persists. Elsewhere, temperatures will largely be near normal or slightly cooler than average. Campbell Hazards - Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Thu-Sat, Jun 24-Jun 26. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html