Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 554 PM EDT Sat Nov 05 2022 Valid 12Z Wed Nov 09 2022 - 12Z Sun Nov 13 2022 ...Synoptic Scale Overview... Overall, ridging across southeast AK and western Canada should generally maintain itself while wavering in intensity this period while storminess impacts the southern and western extremities of AK. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Preferences... Overall, the model guidance shows increasing disagreement due to differences in the northern stream and southern stream, which has consequences for cyclone track near the Aleutians. If that isn't enough, the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF become outliers with the strength of a low moving by western Alaska. The Canadian continues to phase streams and brings a very deep cyclone north to northwest through the Bering and eastern Siberia. A compromise of the 12z GFS, 12z ECMWF, 12z Canadian, and 12z UKMET was used Monday night into Tuesday night before the spread became overwhelming. With such a variety in the deterministic guidance from Wednesday night onward, ECMWF/NAEFS ensemble means were utilized thereafter (using a 70% percentage) to deal with all the differences seen in the guidance for the pressures, fronts, winds, and 500 hPa heights. The 19z NBM, 12z ECMWF ensemble mean, and 12z NAEFS mean were used more heavily in the QPF as a consequence, with the usual 19z NBM heavily used in the remaining grids. ...Sensible Weather and Potential Hazards..., Parts of Alaska will be cold and dry, particularly the eastern interior, though moderation will be seen in the AK peninsula as the flow comes in more off the northeast Pacific and the arctic high moves farther afield downstream through Canada which should allow temperatures to recover from their below average values early on. Cloudy conditions should be dominant through the period statewide. Rain chances are expected to be highest in the west and southern parts of the state, with the heaviest rain down south. Winds should be highest across southwest into south-central AK as well as the Aleutians, though uncertainty in the latitude of the cyclone track and depth of systems precludes much more than gales from being anticipated ashore at this time. There is higher potential for higher winds in portions of the Aleutians Wednesday night and Thursday, perhaps storm force if the track and depth of a pair of cyclones are most favorable. Roth WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html