Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 556 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2022 Valid 12Z Thu Nov 10 2022 - 12Z Mon Nov 14 2022 ...Synoptic Scale Overview... A powerful low pressure system is forecast to approach the central Aleutians towards the end of the week and then weaken as it enters the Bering Sea. There should be a broad area of low pressure over the Bering and Aleutians through next weekend with multiple shortwaves reinforcing the trough axis here. Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will continue to govern the overall weather pattern across the Interior. Areas of heavy precipitation are possible from the eastern Aleutians to the Kenai Peninsula with moist onshore flow. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Preferences... The 12Z model guidance has come into a little better focus with the low pressure system approaching the Aleutians late in the week, although the GFS and the GEFS means continue to show a more eastward trajectory towards the Gulf of Alaska. This is in contrast to the CMC/ECMWF/UKMET, which support a more northward track across the southern Bering Sea. The WPC forecast was hedged more in this direction compared to the GFS/GEFS idea. The next trough developing over the Bering/Aleutians next weekend is reasonably well supported in the guidance, although the CMC becomes a bit slower in its progression. The models continue to agree on the upper ridge axis holding strong across the Interior. ...Sensible Weather and Potential Hazards..., Temperatures are expected to gradually warm up going into the extended forecast period with highs returning to the 20s and low 30s for most of the mainland, with the exception of some 0s and 10s for some of the more sheltered valley locations. Mostly cloudy conditions should be prevalent across most of the state. Rain chances are expected to be highest across the Aleutians and near the higher terrain of the southern coastal areas, with the potential for a few inches of QPF for the Thursday through Sunday time period, with this mainly in the form of heavy snow for the higher elevations. Winds should be highest across the southwestern mainland into the Aleutians, depending on the eventual track and strength of the North Pacific storm system. There is greater potential for higher winds in portions of the Aleutians Wednesday night and Thursday, perhaps reaching storm force if the track and depth of a pair of cyclones are most favorable. Hamrick WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html