Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 647 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2022 Valid 12Z Fri Nov 11 2022 - 12Z Tue Nov 15 2022 ...Synoptic Scale Overview... A powerful low pressure system is forecast to approach the central Aleutians for the end of the week and then weaken as it enters the Bering Sea. There should be a broad area of low pressure over the Bering and Aleutians through next weekend with multiple shortwaves reinforcing the trough axis here. Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will continue to govern the overall weather pattern across the Interior. Areas of heavy precipitation are expected from the eastern Aleutians to the Kenai Peninsula with moist onshore flow. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Preferences... The strong storm for the Aleutians late in the week is handled well in the 12Z model guidance suite, although the latest 18Z GFS run along with its ensemble mean begins diverging as early as Friday afternoon with a more southerly track and then weakening over the Gulf, whereas the CMC/ECMWF/ECENS support the idea of the low reaching the southern Bering and then weakening through early Saturday. Going forward into the weekend, a second synoptic scale trough sets up residence in the same general area, and here the 18Z GFS is generally a stronger solution with a more impactful surface low. The upper ridge axis across the Yukon and the eastern Interior remains the most confident aspect of the extended range forecast. The WPC fronts/pressures forecast was primarily derived from a multi-deterministic 12Z model blend, followed by increasing use of the ensemble means by early next week. ...Sensible Weather and Potential Hazards..., Temperatures will continue to moderate going into the extended forecast period with highs returning to the 20s to middle 30s for most of the mainland, with the exception of some 10s in the more sheltered valley locations, and 40s for the southern coastal areas. Mostly cloudy conditions should be prevalent across most of the state. Rain chances are expected to be highest across the central/eastern Aleutians and near the higher terrain of the southern coastal areas, with the potential for several inches of QPF for the Friday through Sunday time period, with this mainly in the form of heavy snow for the higher elevations and heavy rain near the coast as an atmospheric river affects the region. Winds should be highest across the southwestern mainland into the Aleutians, depending on the eventual track and strength of the North Pacific storm system, with widespread gale to storm force winds expected on Thursday and Friday for the coastal waters. Hamrick Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Sat, Nov 12. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html