Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Mar 29 2023 - 12Z Sun Apr 02 2023
...Overview/Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...
A progressive flow pattern is expected across and near Alaska
during the forecast period. Unsettled weather, particularly
rain/snow, is most favored across the southern/coastal sections of
the state. In general, the synoptic pattern was well clustered
early on before falling apart near the Aleutians mid to late
period (mid to late next week). For the pressures, winds, 500 hPa
heights, and QPF, used a compromise of the 12z UKMET, 12z GFS, 12z
Canadian, and 12z ECMWF to help deal with detail uncertainty early
on before blending in the 12z NAEFS and 00z ECMWF ensemble means
which helped out a bit near the Aleutians. The remainder of the
grids were based primarily on the 19z NBM.
...Weather/Hazard Highlights...
Gales are expected across portions of the AK Peninsula and Upper
Aleutians from next Wednesday into Friday as a cyclone develops in
the northeast Pacific/Gulf of AK. As an occluded cyclone passes
north of AK, winds near gale force are also expected along the
North Slope next weekend. The heaviest rainfall/snowfall and
highest rain chances are expected across the Aleutians and
southern AK, particularly late Tuesday into Friday, which should
be heaviest near the south-central coast. Temperature-wise, it
looks coldest across the North Slope, but temperatures should be
more above than below 0F. Milder temperatures are expected across
central and southern AK, with daily maxima above the freezing mark
expected even across portions of interior AK.
Roth
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html